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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (10560)	3/20/2004 6:42:53 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Imagine, two years ago this administration imposed sanctions against steel imports. They only lifted them in Dec/03, and now this drastic shortage of steel. Go figure. C

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (10560)	3/22/2004 7:30:47 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Permanent is something I get done to my hair and it comes out with a Blue Grouse finish and a wiry fabric. I think the underinvestment in base metal operations is going on 25 years, so the plants are old and there's very little new capacity on the horizon for several years. The current production profile of deposits suggests a diminishing supply as many mines are near life's end and costs are rising. The return to normal may take 20 years. Normal, in this case as it is with many other commodities long term, is that commodities real cost declines over time. Copper at 70 cents, not long ago, was probably as cheap in real terms as it ever has been. The cycle we are in suggests their real cost is going to increase for some time as a relatively fixed supply, with a downside bias, is occurring at a time of rapidly escalating demand. This means the price of copper, for example, is likely to appreciate in terms of all fiat currencies. Normal and the new balance occur when real prices start falling again, which will happen but not for a long time I think. This is powerful stuff.