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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roads End who wrote (10617)	3/22/2004 11:29:35 AM
From: Steve Lokness	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Reichers; Well I never said that all lumber wasn't going up - I agree with you on that. If it isn't some kind of manipulation - then why in the world did these prices stay so low for so long during this entire building boom until just now when they have suddenly exploded? If the price had follow a normal rise and fall depending on demand, I could agree with you, but that just isn't what happened. If these producers were losing money for YEARS at the 5 OSB price - then they have no one to blame but themselves. We are not talking some small increase - we are discussing a product which increased by a magnitude of almost 4!!!!!! Since this is surely the largest product by volume going into a home - it should make us stand up and take notice. I'm a free market guy. What happened with OSB is that the producers built too much capacity which is hard to believe given the amount of the stuff we have used. This happens all the time and if the government stays out of the business of deciding winners, then yes a few of the weak will fail. But when the government plays games with free trade (Canada tariffs) and creates a false demand (Iraq), every weak producer stays in business and even more mills are built!! Who can't make money at the 18$ price!! AND THEN when things fall they fall just that much harder. Maybe a WY or LP short is a wise move? I did appreciate your comments. steve