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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (10860)	3/26/2004 4:43:54 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Yeah...frankly Sinclair never makes any sense to me, even though we are on the same side of the (long term) PM trade.

To: NOW who wrote (10860)	3/26/2004 4:44:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I am long the June $430 gold Calls, long the June $400 gold Puts and long the futures. I will continue to sell the futures into strength and buy on weakness using the simple Power Up and Power Down Trend lines. If I turn the Puts into confetti, the Calls should work well for me. I will continue to produce $$ by trading the futures, buying the weakness, and selling the strength on the most simple of all techniques which is the Power Up and Power Down Trend lines. His analysis is not even correct. Why should June 400 Puts do well just because June 430 calls do not? Or vice versa. You can drive a hole thru that gap and a close anyhere in the middle and he loses on BOTH sets of options. June options expire in May so there is not even a tremendous amout of time there. Contrast that with the play I just did. I bought an August 410 call near the bottom at 395 or so for 11 points. Yesterday (wish I waited until today), I sold a June 430 for 8 points. I have $300 at risk and a chance to make $2700 by June expiry, PLUS I still have 2 months time premium left on the Aug call. Max loss here is $300 max gain is $2700 (if gold really really spikes by June), otherwise it is unlimited after June expiry. I hope to collect that premium, be $2700 ahead or so and do a write converting the calendar spread into a regular spread. I do not understand being long June 400 puts here. A waste of money. Buying futures and selling calls into spikes makes a lot of sense, or buying calls and converting into bull spreads makes a lot of sense. But sitting on a ton of time in both directions does not make a lot of sense to me. Mish