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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (47771)	3/28/2004 2:21:19 AM
From: brian h	Respond to of 74559

I like to keep things simple. May be that is why I can not be a thriller novelist. The way you wrote your message. you could have been a good novelist. Then again may be you already are. (gg)

To: TobagoJack who wrote (47771)	3/28/2004 5:52:50 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay: If there is a powerful faction within China that would roll back some of the economic linkage--nay, symbiosis--between the U.S. and China, and rebalance the capitalist tilt of public policy, then some more overt and physical action against Taiwan would give them a two'fer. Under the flag of nationalism, they might hope to achieve the following less nationalist, old Party-line goals: 1. Cool off all that capitalist fervor we read about, and with it the overheated lending, buying and building; 2. Put the U.S. in the position of taking action to disrupt the U.S.-China trade/debt relationship (via sanctions), which Republicans and Democrats alike would be yelling for in a combination of outrage and showmanship; 3. Put the U.S. economy to a test: whether man can live on services alone--thereby prompting greater awareness within the U.S. that China, a key creditor and supplier, has its own interests that it demands be respected; 4. Break or soften linkage with $USD, pointing to U.S. conduct (whatever response GWB makes) as justification, and perhaps tilt more toward precious metals and the Euro for foreign exchange; 5. Create the rationale for selling a lot of U.S. Treasury debt--helping China's balance sheet while undermining the dollar; 6. Create the rationale for a bigger army (to sop up more of the unemployed) and army budget; 7. Justify a tilt, as to N. Korea, from peace broker to Asian solidarity against the interloper; 8. Weaken Japan by implication; 9. Get a President Kerry, a much weaker U.S. economy, and thus a U.S. Asian policy that allows China more hegemony; 10. Get a reconstituted Chinese leadership to deal with new U.S. leadership on a more equal footing. Now let me be clear: I think any such plan is very counter-productive for China, and I am not suggesting it is any part of the leadership's thinking. But that is more of an economic than a geopolitical observation. To the extent there are very nationalistic persons in the leadership who don't embrace China's rush toward capitalism, and don't like the economic embrace with the U.S., an imagined temporary derailment of the nation's current march to prosperity, in order to better reconfigure China's geopolitical relationships for the long term, might seem appealing.