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To: que seria who wrote (47779)	3/28/2004 6:12:45 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Ineresting speculation - let point out that the China/US arrangement has resulted in 6-10 % GDP growth for China, and this enhances their strategic and internal security in many ways. Can't see them giving this up because they don't like the color of the cat.....

To: que seria who wrote (47779)	3/28/2004 6:17:42 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

I think if PRC were to atttack Taiwan , the US might protest on some level, and at another level call it an internal matter. No serious sanctions would result. Which would leave much of the world and the Chinese people asking, "Why is the PRC government attacking people in one of their own provinces ?"

To: que seria who wrote (47779)	3/28/2004 9:26:11 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 74559

<<< Now let me be clear: I think any such plan is very counter-productive for China, and I am not suggesting it is any part of the leadership's thinking. But that is more of an economic than a geopolitical observation. To the extent there are very nationalistic persons in the leadership who don't embrace China's rush toward capitalism, and don't like the economic embrace with the U.S., an imagined temporary derailment of the nation's current march to prosperity, in order to better reconfigure China's geopolitical relationships for the long term, might seem appealing.>>> I am not a policy wonk or foreign affairs expert, but I think I am pretty good at reading tea leaves and body language. I think the current leadership from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jin Tao are more bureaucrats'than ideologues. They are more engineers than politicians. This does not mean that China's leadership does not still have a lot of crazies left over from the Li Pang (I think that was the guys name - the Chinese President with the bad hair cut) from Tiananmen Square days. The current leadership (I am not all too confident that the Premier - Wen somebody - does not lean more toward the crazies) are going to let the crazies in their government do the talking, but they (Hu and Jiang) themselves are going to sit on their hands and do nothing. Of course, when things get out of control, this bunch will do all they can to cover their you-know-what. And then who knows what can happen? The person to watch is Yao Ming. If Yao Ming goes into a slump, you know something bad is happening <gggg>. Mary