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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (10915)	3/28/2004 10:27:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, Japan is confusing to say the least. Check these out: Japan Ends Currency Intervention nytimes.com Or do they? Now check This out from tonight: Message 19960866 This post sums up the current situation (I think) Message 19960879 My thoughts are here: Message 19960704 BTW - we went back and for on this last week too on the day you were out. All kinds of conflicting stuff out of Japan. I posted 3 FED statements (3 different governors) last week saying "this could not go on forever" or something close to that. The market yawned on the first two for sure. On Friday Eurodollars fell hard, but judging from your comments you do not think they went down hard. I think they started falling based on speculation of a huge positive jobs report. But there are all kinds of reasons right now for eurodollars to sell off (I still am holding and if it gets really ugly, I am adding). But here are the reasons: 1) Jobs 2) Japan 3) Fed Hawkish statements - most in a long time Of these, I think #1 is most important. I do not think this economy is creating enough jobs to matter. But..... If they can lie about the PPI, they can lie about jobs. Not sure if you saw the Euro rate cut speculation or not while you were gone. Euribors have AT LEAST a 1/4 cut priced in for June now. I have done tremendous on those but I am pissed that the front months have priced in more than the back months. Seems peculiar to me. If they do NOT cut, there is a nasty Euribor selloff coming (perhaps if there is a bias change the front months take the burdon of the hit). We have also seen a ton os speculation about repricing the RMB as well. I do NOT buy that at all. Finally, if treasuries sell of hard heading into Friday, Even IF there is a decent job # (but probably not a great one), we could see a snapback. Here is my GUESS right now: Buy the news on treasuries and eurodollars Fade the initial reaction no matter what it is in the stock market. however, if we have a strong week on the markets heading into Friday, I think it just might be sell the news no matter what on equities. I have no idea on gold and silver. M

To: russwinter who wrote (10915)	3/29/2004 8:12:24 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>> This BOJ report really has me scratching my head, as I think (if true) it is a VERY big deal. << Me too, but I don't think it has to be either entirely true or completely false. I think the mostly likely scenario is that they are going to decrease their rate of buying of US Dollars and selling of Yen - not because Japan's economy is looking so great, but because they've reached a critical pt in terms of how much intervention it's taking to support the Dollar. By using another excuse it looks far less desperate. It's all about appearances. Whether this comes end of March, April, etc. most agree it's coming eventually. Now how to play everything is a much more difficult matter. (US economy appearing to get stronger, EU weaker, China trying to slow things down, bond bubble, housing bubble, many commodities getting speculative, US Dollar still very overvalued...) Lots of cross currents.