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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (36926)	3/29/2004 8:56:31 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793963

Looks to me like an attempt to control an infestation of dandelions by plucking off the flowers. I think you and I have a half full/half empty glass on Israeli, Steven. It is going to be a TWT situation.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (36926)	3/30/2004 12:46:27 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 793963

The Region: The Fatah-Hamas rivalry By BARRY RUBIN What are the implications of Ahmed Yassin's death for Palestinian politics? In the short run, it brought sympathy for Hamas from the general population. But this event is unlikely to have much lasting impact. The real issue is the power struggle between Fatah and Hamas. Let's consider some of the elements involved: The key factor is the purposeful paralysis of Yasser Arafat, who, surprisingly, is six years older than Yassin was. Despite the terrible Palestinian situation, Arafat is happy with it. He continues his war against Israel despite his side's economic collapse and military defeat. Nothing makes him want to change course, and it seems conceivable he will not shift in strategy again in his lifetime. He revels in the chaos. Asked by a visitor why he doesn't deal with the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, Arafat replied that he was ready for it to fall apart because Israel and the United States would be blamed. Arafat, as many Fatah leaders know, is responsible for the declining fortunes of his group as well as of his people. By refusing to take strong action against Hamas, stop terrorism, and rein in the thuggish activity of militias waging battle against Israel, he is discrediting the PA, Fatah, and the nationalist cause. Thus, at the very moment when Fatah and the PA need to bolster their unity and decisiveness they are sabotaged by their own leader. Arafat's departure from the scene cannot be too far off. How will Fatah and the PA manage in his absence, stick together, or find a successor if they are more divided than ever? Fatah has never been so factionalized, and the PA has virtually ceased to exist. Each security agency does as it pleases. The Tanzim and Aksa Martyrs Brigades operate as independent fiefdoms. Each town and small area of the West Bank is becoming a mini-kingdom with its own contending factions. Arafat can change this situation but he won't, and perhaps the time is running out for reversing it. With Yassin dead, the only possible Islamist successor to Arafat is out of the picture, and so prospects of a Hamas seizure of power have plummeted. SINCE 2000, Arafat has put Fatah into an alliance with Hamas. The two groups even carry out joint terrorist attacks. Arafat never had any intention of restraining Hamas. In this respect, Yassin's death has changed nothing. Hamas can only win if Fatah lets it take over by default. If Hamas can itself kill Fatah officials and ignore the PA's authority, this makes it a contender for power. In this context, it is doubtful that in their innermost feelings most Palestinian nationalist leaders are sorry to see Yassin dead. The pending Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip raises the stakes. Who is going to be in control, not necessarily of the whole area – itself small enough – but of every tiny piece of real estate within it? This includes the right to collect protection money. But Hamas has its own problems in the pursuit of power. However many terrorist attacks it can mount, it is going to be weaker without Yassin. Hamas is a very fragmented organization, with no alternative preeminent leader in sight. After all, what is a "spiritual guide," the title held by Yassin? He was the leader of Hamas, though he did not give out detailed orders or sit in an office doing its paperwork. He set the general policy, which for Yassin meant always pushing a hard line. But, most importantly, a "spiritual guide" is someone who is so exalted, so respected by everyone that he is beyond challenge. Hamas has no replacement for Yassin in this regard. In this context, the appointment of Abdel-Aziz Rantisi as Hamas's new leader is good news. Rantisi is not a strong figure and does not enjoy broad authority in the group. In political terms, this means Hamas will be fragmented and less able to operate in a coordinated fashion to try to take over the Gaza Strip or seize power among the Palestinians generally. Publicly, after escaping an Israeli attack last year, Rantisi spoke of eternal struggle against Israel. Privately, intelligence sources reported, he started suggesting that a cease-fire might not be a bad idea. While no one should have any illusions that Hamas will stop trying to strike Israel with terrorism, Rantisi's elevation is not going to make it a tougher organization. Speaking of Rantisi, let it not pass without notice that when Israel tried to kill him, one of the complaints brought by foreign politicians and journalists was that he was "only" Hamas's spokesman and not involved in terrorism. As has repeatedly happened before, the organization's own decision shows how naive such distinctions are. jpost.com