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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (20047)	3/30/2004 4:39:26 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Bill this market is nothing like it would be if we had a decent employment base. Yes we got a good market last year and a sort of so so one this year but that was only after the mother of all bears in 00/01/02 which I KNOW you are aware of! Truth be told, given where we are in this economy for tech, where the companies are and their profitability I actually think the nasdaq is undervalued. The reason I think this is because with the dearth of hiring weighing on capex we still are managing great profitability. If we had hiring, and the revenue growth that comes with it, plus the additional liquidity that more workers mean in the stock market, we'd be WAY ABOVE 2000. I know reagan had deficits but I want a clinton market back, don't you? Why settle for the 80s, when we were losing the battle with Japan? Who are we losing to now anyway? Don't answer I already know- China. But the difference is that this time we are engineering our own demise with China. If we actually took care of our industries and our workforce to the degree that some of these other nations do then we wouldn't have these deficits or a dollar crash. And I'm not talking about xenophobic Japan either. I'm talking about something as common sensical as NOT awarding $100mm government R&D grants to companies that do their R&D offshore. It looks like China is wrestling the chip industry away from Intel now btw. Gee how'd they learn how to build chips over there anyway? As an analogy to what the US economy is allowing free trade status to do to us, I have an idea. Lets start a nafta with Japan, called "Japta". We will go over there and "partner" with Honda to build robots, but we will create our own robotic standard which is slightly different, very slight from the japanese standard. Then, we will cut all taxes on our workforce for workers that work for japanese companies offshore while at the same time artificially lowering our currency. Japan then naively sends its IP to our shores and voila! Instant industry. As soon as we create the industry we immediately close the market. Meanwhile economists offshore will be chanting that this ripoff of Japanese IP is actually a good thing that has happened to the japanese economy, while the japanese robotic workers who are the best in the world can get jobs at fast food outlets.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (20047)	3/30/2004 5:09:04 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Seeing a raft of stocks breaking out to new highs like AUO, TASR, APPX, ELAB, GVHR etc. One more 40+ day on the NASDAQ and 10+ day on the s&p on decent volume would seal it for me. Anindo

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (20047)	3/31/2004 7:39:11 AM
From: Dave Doriguzzi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

>>I disagree. The market is driven ultimately by earnings and interest rates. The market has been rallying for a year. Do you remember the Reagan deficit?<< But you ultimately have to have consumers consume so if no jobs or low-paying jobs, then ... well ... no earnings IMHO. And what about tax receipts (see Lizzie I read your posts! lol) Take China for instance. If they didn't peg their currency, paid better than "slave wages", had the EPA (I mentioned before friends who have visited and said it's an environmental disaster), had some healthcare for its citizens from corporations and the govt., add some tort reform in the US then things might start to get a little more equitable. But until then I see nothing but problems for the US economy and its workers because jobs will continue to move. Everyone has an opinion on this. The R's say "well we should because it's a free market", the D's say "all the good jobs are being outsourced, offshored, whatever". I think it's more complex but I do think "it's like giving away the keys to the castle" because if you lose an industry or your core competency (especially in manufacturing) I doubt you will ever get those back. Are we going to have a nation of people giving each other $35 haircuts, selling each other insurance, credit cards, and stocks. Intuitively, if this happens and you buy all Japanese, Chinese, Korean (name your country) goods then by definition this will lead to a huge trade deficit and it's not difficult to figure out the rest of this scenario. In fact I think it is happening now.