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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (127943)	3/31/2004 1:08:15 PM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Never said that. I said "If the price of oil rises for everyone then there is no change in competition for all oil dependent products." You are claiming that there is a transition period where some will reap a benefit by using oil that is made available because some others use less. True for the short term but not for the long term. Take Denmark, 25% of it's energy is based on renewable sources and more is to be installed. So Denmark helps the US get lower oil prices. But it is only a short term advantage. In the long term the US will have to use more alternative energy sources and to get these sources installed will require governmental subsidies because no one will loan money to energy producers for alternative energy sources when the payback is not high enough in the short term. "The bottom line is it's about basic supply and demand. When the price of fossil fuels (oil not gasoline) reaches a prohibitive level, then other forms of alternative fuels will become economically attractive." Which is the situation down the line. You argue from the present, I'm arguing from the near future. Since development of alternatives to oil is expensive and takes time(years if not decades) competing against low wages in China is counterproductive. Sooner or later oil will run out and the winner in the post oil world will be those who have access to energy and the means to produce "post oil" energy.