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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11457)	4/7/2004 12:37:03 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

few seem to realize Saudi has almost 40% unemployment / jw

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11457)	4/7/2004 12:41:23 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

why their Oil Minister would try to paint such a rosy picture Because fundamental Saudi policy is to keep the world hooked on oil -- because their reserves will last for as much as a century even after they hit peak production. A world that wakes up and via research and conservation frees itself from oil dependency in, say, the next 30 years, will not be good for SA.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11457)	4/7/2004 2:20:15 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

well i would guess the Saudi power is between a rock (US military) and a hard place (fundamenatlist islamic powers).... a task which will require incredible diplomacy.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11457)	4/7/2004 2:43:16 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

First an excellent synopsis on Saudi oil fields: simmonsco-intl.com <could imply that commodities would go back to "normal" if only rates were "normalized> Higher rates well tend to take the edge off this trade for speculators. Unfortunately for the Fed, it takes the edge off of the bond carry trade too. I think the market is now set up for huge price drops in debt instruments and bonds, even with only 25-50 bps FF increases. I don't think that will even ripple (maybe a pause, and slight downtick) commodities, as they are truly in short supply, it will take much higher rates now. Of course if 50 bps took down the world economy in a sudden bust, that would be a different story. The Train Wreck also has the potential of taking the world economy down suddenly in a bust. <Oil Minister would try to paint such a rosy picture> Yes, it's politics, trying to act like players on the world stage as if they control events. They could cause an oil spike, but are irrelevant on the extra supply side of taking prices back down significantly.