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To: reaper who wrote (3823)	4/7/2004 1:38:01 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

Supply isn't probably the right word -- really talking about capability to transport -- the gas is there. There is no doubt about the size of the field in Qatar and I think there is probably pretty well-defined reserves around Trinadad as well -- what I am talking about is getting the terminals and shipping going by that time and the qtys -- To be honest, I think the more important thing there will be potential new demand on those resources if crude is consistently higher at that time -- I think that will increase demand on these supplies at the margin to the extent that it won't be as cheap relatively speaking to NA gas as everyone is projecting.

To: reaper who wrote (3823)	4/7/2004 1:43:28 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

why do you think that the supply forecasts for LNG in the post-2007 time frame are "way overoptimistic"? "The potential is somewhat greater for increased imports of LNG to make at least some contribution to North American supply this decade. For this to happen, however, many hurdles will have to be overcome – including, but not by any means limited to the siting of new re-gasification terminals. Even if these hurdles can be tackled successfully, however, we believe it is unlikely that imports of LNG into the U.S. market will increase by more than 1.0 TCf this decade (i.e., 3.0 BCf/day). This is less than ½ the amount assumed in many estimates. There are simply not enough new supply projects already under way in the Atlantic Basin and the lead time for completing new projects is too long for it to be realistic to expect more – especially given likely competition from European purchasers for these same supplies. In the meantime, the amount of natural gas needed by the power sector in particular will continue to increase significantly every year. It is likely to be many, many years, therefore, before supplies of LNG can be ramped up sufficiently to catch up to continuously increasing North American demand – which is likely to continue increasing all through the next decade. In the interim, in an de-regulated, supplier driven market for natural gas, LNG prices may well be dictated more by the market-clearing price in an increasingly tight North American market than by the cost for producing LNG in the Atlantic Basin and delivering it into the pipeline system in the U.S., Canada or Mexico." financialsense.com see also: "Will LNG Save the US?" financialsense.com