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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (11557)	4/8/2004 8:02:39 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Flows: Apr 7 amgdata.com Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $5.0 billion in the week ended April 7 with 69% going to funds investing in Domestic securities; International Equity funds report inflows to all Emerging and Developed regions; Real Estate funds report the first outflows of the year -($284 mil) and the largest on record with more share classes reporting net cash redemptions than any week since 3/12/03; Technology funds report the tenth consecutive week of net cash outflows; Taxable Bond funds report net cash inflows of $1.2 billion as Treasury funds report inflows of $457 million with most going to iShares Lehman 20yr+, TIPS, 7-10yr and 3 yr Treasury Bond funds; Flexible funds report inflows of $278 million; Money Market funds report inflows totaling $14.8 billion with 38% going to Tax-Exempt funds ($5.6 Bil); Municipal Bond funds report net cash outflows of -$168 million.

To: russwinter who wrote (11557)	4/8/2004 9:33:40 PM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 110194

"Whatever number you use, it suggests that one heck of a lot of industry dependent on copper needs to really cut back and ration, severely. The economic impact of such a contraction is enormous. The primary short term factor in that equation is the repair of the slide at Grasberg in Irian Jaya, that has taken about 250k-300k MT out of production. Almost all the projections factor that coming back on line in about June. FCX has been dead silent about that, but it's expected they will update the progress of the repairs when they report in a few weeks. If it's delayed, you better be prepared to use my 8-9% deficit figure." I have noticed that FCX is technically very weak, so maybe the market is telling us that production will not resume quickly. Little joe

To: russwinter who wrote (11557)	4/9/2004 8:58:07 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<but I expect copper, steel, etc too> No real slowdown in demand in March. Even surprises me some, as I'm expecting the effects of the Train Wreck to start taking hold. Certainly not being held down by government policy though. Reuters UPDATE - Steel, phones drive fast China factory growth Friday April 9, 2:50 am ET By Scott Hillis BEIJING, April 9 (Reuters) - Chinese industrial output raced ahead in the year through March as factories stepped up production of phones, steel and other goods, with analysts seeing a slowdown in a few months because of moves to cool growth. Output in March was 19.4 percent higher than a year earlier -- strong growth but slower than the 23.2 percent in the year through February, the State Statistical Bureau said on Friday. Brisk factory output, alongside surges in money supply and fixed-asset investment, helped fuel eye-popping economic growth of 9.9 percent in the year to the fourth quarter of 2003. Analysts say fears shared by some government officials that pockets of the booming Chinese economy may be overheating could mean output growth plateaus in the coming months before decelerating in the second half of the year. "Despite an apparent fall in the March industrial output, we don't see a cooling in the economy," said Wang Chuanglian, an economist at China Southern Securities. The government has slapped curbs on lending to sectors such as property and autos, and has twice in the past year limited the amount of funds banks have available for lending. MORE CURBS NEEDED But Beijing needed to take more measures to cool pockets of the economy, said Cheng Manjiang, economist for Bank of China International. Industrial output, already strong, accelerated in 2003. Every month from September to February saw successively faster growth from a year earlier. "The government definitely needs to do more. I think major administrative measures will be used instead of more monetary policy moves," Cheng said. "I believe the major instrument will be in the hands of the government rather than the People's Bank of China," she said. Industrial output was 15.2 percent higher in March than in February, but the figures are not adjusted for seasonal patterns. Factory production in the first quarter was 17.7 percent higher than a year earlier, strength the statistics bureau credited in part to heavy investment in industries such as metals and construction materials. Cement output in the first three months was up nearly 24 percent, while steel production was nearly 30 percent higher, it said. CELLPHONES STILL HOT Stronger retail sales drove output of consumer goods. First-quarter mobile phone production jumped 42 percent from a year earlier, car output climbed 37 percent and digital camera output nearly doubled. Any sharp downturn is unlikely, given strong demand in the world economy for cheap Chinese exports. Chinese electronics and appliance firms, including TV, mobile phone and telecoms equipment makers, are embarking on export drives as they take advantage of low manufacturing costs to expand outside their home market. Last year's industrial output was 17 percent higher than 2002's as Chinese factories developed into a key source of growth for other countries, sucking in raw materials and components. ($1=8.276 yuan) (Additional reporting by Tamora Vidaillet and Lu Jianxin)