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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (94637)	4/8/2004 9:58:33 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Fuddle, I was going to post something to you yesterday (but I was too tired) about this thread likely not being for you. Granted I think the thread header could use some updating but this is essentially a trading thread bull or bear. It was originally set up to play the first phase of the bear which was well under way and while there were still so many dogmatic permabulls around that I needed a deterrent. While most here are quite bearish in the largest time frames, I feel that you would probably be more comfortable on the mother thread. I welcome posts highlighting bearish set-ups on the charts but at this point there just aren't any in the near-term. This could change on a dime of course but for now there simply aren't any that I can see. The money has been made on the bull side and I'm not into fading an 18 month trend when there are no broken charts. I know you are expecting a waterfall and I too think it will come one day. But here we are within a hair's breath of making yet another new high for the move on the SPX and you are still bearish even in the near-term, it just doesn't make sense, no disrespect intended. but this thread has become tiresome lately. Trying to squeeze the last drop of juice out of a lemon is of no interest to me. There are so many hints that we are on the verge of a waterfall decline and I am going to concentrate on taking advantage of it. Obviously a shot at the current bullish bias of the thread which makes little sense to me. What are we supposed to do? Go short based on our fundamentally bearish bias and get stopped out over and over again for a loss? And don't you think that I and zoodles of others here will switch when the time is right? I assure you that I will be all over the next bear. Anyway not to belabour the point. You're always free to to post here fuddle but perhaps it would be best to wait until the tide turns. But post a bearish chart set-up and I am more than willing to listen. Cheers,

To: SwampDogg who wrote (94637)	4/8/2004 11:30:05 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Fuddle, just a little hint. Crashes happen within 10% of a bull move top. We're at about 60% below the 2000 top on the Nasdaq. That's not crash or waterfall territory. Also, many things that worked in the bear no longer work in this market. I learned that in April/May 2003. You're only a year later than me if you accept that now, and I was later than others. If you read charts, there is very little I can see that supports any kind of down here other than a re-trace off a new high above 1508 NDX. All I see is inverse H&S formations, and H&S formations tend to work in the direction of the prevailing trend on the indices. That means if you're waiting for a regular H&S to work, you're probably going to be SOL. Most of us here provide support for our views, so other than telling us the sky is falling, I really haven't seen much from you to support your case on a T/A basis. F/A means little or nothing to me. I'd buy TASR at $85, no problem, with a stop at $75. Is it trash? Sure. Can it go to $170? Sure can. Is it worth more than $5? Probably not. Who the hell cares? It's not my job to assign what a stock ought to be trading for. It's only my job to identify the trend it's in, trade the trend, and profit from it. I'll let analysts and Bozo's on those finance shows tell their fellow clowns out there that kind of crap. It's not the bearish views or bullish views, it's identifying the trend. Well, nearly all the charts I'm looking at turned up on the weekly at the March lows, and nearly all the monthly's are still pointed up or above the mid level on many indicators, which is positive. Unless you're using quarterly charts or something, I can't see how anything negative can be read into this move off the March lows, which nailed a 55-day cycle turn.