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To: ajtj99 who wrote (94640)	4/8/2004 11:35:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

aj - why cant there be a crash off a retrace. This was one of the most powerful you will ever see. You certainly see rampant optimism here. That is a necessary ingrediant. Extreme overvaluation is another and that fits too. Why cant we crash at a cyclical peak as opposed to THE peak. I think we can. Please do not confuse CAN with WILL, and there certainly are bearish counts that could allow for a wave 3 down here. Now, some of those counts are really iffy, and we have to define "crash" but you can not rule it out completly like I think you just did. Mish

To: ajtj99 who wrote (94640)	4/8/2004 11:37:07 PM
From: Tom Swift	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

While it could go either way, I think we are in a rounding top formation right now - at least in techs. Low 1800s in the COMPQ seems possible. stockcharts.com[w,a]mhclyiay[pd20,2!b20!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!lb5!la12,26,9!ll14][J19506497,Y]&listNum=1

To: ajtj99 who wrote (94640)	4/9/2004 12:26:35 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

This is my last post. <<Crashes happen within 10% of a bull move top. We're at about 60% below the 2000 top on the Nasdaq. That's not crash or waterfall territory.>> Then what the hell happened in April-July 2002? stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G <<Also, many things that worked in the bear no longer work in this market.>> I don't follow. There have been many good short opps in the last 6 months inluding AMZN, AMKR, KLAC, NVLS, S etc It is where you pick your spots obviously. The sad thing is that there is no room for any short views here any more. I have brought up a lot of TA evidence on this thread for the bear count. Message 19932871 Message 19996280 Message 19996217 Message 19986852 Message 19986908 Message 19985953 Message 19985944 Message 19929891 And there is a lot more. Not a lot of FA there that I can see. So long...