Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (4051)	4/9/2004 11:53:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Modern day Kondratieff Where are we in this cycle? [Mish note: except for this note, the entire rest of this post is from Plunger] 1. War uses up productive capital and destroys asset values by huge uncertainty as to future property rights. 2. Immediately post war because of the low assets base savings are in huge demand for rebuilding and capex 3. Rapid stable economic growth tending to inflation as all productive capacity is used. 4. As stability returns and is extraplotaed p/es and asset values are elevated 5. As assets rise so a small sharp capitalist-system operator class gardually amasses a larger and larger proportion of the asset base. 6. Their wealth allows them to buy control over the system. 7. But their intent is to get wealthy and they don't spend their wealth. 8. The most lucrative businesses are all about shuffling assets not creating new wealth. 9. Excess of savings over productive use for them leads to a depressionary spiral. 10. As hope turns to despair turns to either anger or desperation ... return to (1). Where are we now? ALL depressions are caused by less spending than productive capacity, and the main cause is excessive concentratio of wealth. Open to comments. Plunger.

To: yard_man who wrote (4051)	4/10/2004 1:19:45 AM
From: DOUG H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I don't really know the answer to those questions but, 1.7 billion over 5 years seems a sneeze in the hanky when you compare what we spend in $$$ and lives to keep the flow of oil going. I'd be for spending 10X that and turning our scientists and engineers loose with a buttload of money to try whatever they feel they need to to solve those questions.