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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11645)	4/10/2004 1:49:19 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

for some reason I do not sense that oil will spike substantially, and have this undefined feeling that other energy sources will replace oil for generating electrical energy and as such the present oil supplies are reasonable again that is my pure speculation and not even an educated guess (prices would be UDX adjusted - meaning that on a basket of currencies oil will be realtive stable)

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11645)	4/10/2004 3:00:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You would NEVER get a margin call on long calls. That is the only way I would recommend playing these things. With futures on a drawwown from 37 to 25 you will be hurting badly, on a bunch of calls you will not. In fact, on the calls, you might even want a drawdown and on a huge dip add more (or buy futures outright). Mish

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (11645)	4/11/2004 9:38:14 AM
From: Umunhum	Respond to of 110194

< i have his latest on order. which ones do you like?> I would have to say Colin Campbell The Coming Oil Crisis was the best. You have to special order it from Amazon (it took me about 3 months to get it) I don't see how a intelligent person could argue with his logic. I have also read The Party's Over but felt it was a bit on the doomsday side. I believe there will be alternatives for oil just they are going to cost in the neighborhood of $80 for the energy equivalent. Remember it is the last barrel of incremental use that will set the price for all the oil. I recently bought and read The Oil Factor by Stephen Leeb and agree it is not one of the better books out there for explaining the coming peak. The reason I bought it is because it is the first book I have come across that tries to explain how to profit from the situation. All the other books I read have an historical perspective or a liberal let's save the world ideology. Which there is nothing wrong with that, but I want to know where I should invest my sheckels in the mean time. Stephen Leeb's book is o.k. He kind of lost me when he recommended ABX as the gold stock to own. He didn't add any credibility when he suggested Intel and got the symbol wrong for Nabors. He also said we should stay away from futures. Overall, I give the book a C+. I also read the prize and a few others but is has been a few years. I like reading Matthew Simmons stuff but he tends to be a little bit too bullish. The main reason I want to invest in oil futures is for the leverage. If you back all your purchases 100% with cash, you might as well buy oil stocks because you'll get more bang for you buck with the same risk. Isn't Deffeyes the one that believes that oil production has already peaked?