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To: The Ox who wrote (14442)4/13/2004 2:44:05 PM
From: Jess Beltz  Respond to of 95834
 
I'm not sure this has anything to do with Intel really, not withstanding that some comments to the same effect were made this morning when things started heading south. INTC is one of two stocks on my board (ESIO being the other) that are in positive territory. It seems pretty clear that the market is just very nervous and jittery, and when nothing overseas happens to spook it, it will spook itself with data interpretation. The fear of rising rates (i.e. a contractive monetary policy) that is being bantered around today is almost laughable. Clearly rates will rise sometime, but almost certainly not when the current recovery is both very anemic and in its infancy. With continued robust growth, the Fed might start eyeing gradual increases in the fall. This is all just bullshit today (allbeit bullshit with a bite). It also hearkens back to some comments of Carl Johnson over at Infrastructure - there is a lot of fear out there. So much so that it seems pretty clear at least at this point that robust earnings growth is being very heavily discounted. jess.



To: The Ox who wrote (14442)4/13/2004 3:51:08 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95834
 
<<But we are approaching May, and there are many people who still believe you sell in May and go away (from the market during the summer).>>

That advice seems to work most of the time, but last year was a big exception. Using that approach last year would have cost some big gains.

<<We've had a nice rebound off the lows of 2 weeks ago and the SOX jumped from 454 to 518 (+14%) during that time.>>

That was a very nice move, but the action stalled this past week and we have yet to gather some more forward momentum. While the SOX was up 14 percent from its lows, that is still a long way from its previous 9 week loss of 560 to 454, or 19 percent. To get back to 560 from 454, it has to gain 23 percent - and that is just to get even. We are now approaching 3 months further down the road from last January and the economy is looking much better going forward.

We should still have "further room to run", but all of the attention today was turned to the fear of rising interest rates. After all, it wouldn't be right unless we were worried about something.;)

Let's see what INTC has to say tonight.

Don



To: The Ox who wrote (14442)4/14/2004 10:26:41 AM
From: BMcV  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95834
 
>>But we are approaching May, and there are many people who
still believe you sell in May and go away (from the market during the summer).<<

Probably less people than before last summer.