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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brian h who wrote (48571)	4/14/2004 11:12:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Brian, <<Who can really beat the market without proper DD???? >> The simple answer, if asked of me, is that I do not know. Please do not detect any sarcasm in my writing below as none is meant to be there. Just read my comments at face value, as that is all there is. I am taking your question as one to anyone and everyone on the thread, since I am certain you are not the type of person to ask questions unless you want to be generously helpful in an altruistic manner, to save fortunes and lives. And, to frame the question in a proper parameter of context, only if you care to, could you tell the thread generally what are some of your other positions that have survived a proper DD process, and what is the general allocation between this cash, that equity, the other bonds and such so that the thread can get a sense of the overall context of your proper DD in relation to criticality of same. I think (a) it is great that you want to be altruistically helpful, and (b) it all depends on your definition of 'proper DD'. For my part, as I have informed the thread before, again, and once more, I tend not to believe I can know much (i.e. enough) about any company over any length of time that will do me good while waiting, even when I am an insider. And so why patiently wait? Why not instead loot? While the looting is good? Until it is no good? As long as we are just picking winners, I will randomly pick three such cases. For example, I know nothing about NEM that I would honor with the phrase 'DD', much less grace with 'proper DD'. I do know my cost basis in NEM is effectively zero achamchen.com since my dealings with it starting in the days of DotCom, before DotBomb. I also know nothing about the Energy royalties, except that they have been paying into my account a whole lot of spend able cash ever since I have owned them, every month, month after month, on the designated days, without fail. I am sure that had anyone followed my trades, they will agree that the looting has been good, and for such a patiently long (as in considerable) elapsed time, and, in the case of NEM, covering a variety of market temperature for the underlying asset. In the case of energy royalties, they have simply been paying out at 12-18%, and scoring capital gains as an palliative to encourage further waiting, patiently. As a last example, Lumacom, where I knew almost all that was knowable about any company by just about any one person and my position size grew to 20 times the size of my normally allowed position size, but I still would not claim ‘I knew the company after proper DD’. In fact, in my game approach, there is no patience required, as there is no patience required while one is standing in the middle of a cash-filled bank vault or a rapidly collapsing cave. It is a game, a dangerous and fun game, but a game. Chugs, Jay P.S. On <<AUO, SSTI, SNDK, QCOM continue to go higher>> Are they still good value, are you adding or holding (which is the same as buying at today's price)? Will you tell us when you sell as you sell?

To: brian h who wrote (48571)	7/22/2004 2:30:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello again, brian, I almost forgot why I was trying to reach you, and now, after a second, I remembered. Regarding <<AUO, SSTI, SNDK, QCOM continue to go higher>> a few questions, (a) AUO uk.finance.yahoo.com has gone from 25 to 12. Does you DD indicate a strong buy at current level? or at least a better buy, perhaps? (b) SSTI uk.finance.yahoo.com has moved strongly up, but in the opposite direction, as in down, from 16 to 8. Should I backup and load up on the truck, based on your long term figuring DD? or at any rate, accumulate a little? (c) SNDK uk.finance.yahoo.com has powered ahead, again in a southerly direction, from 33 to 23. Should I get a clue and tank up? or, based on your newest DD, it is a hold? (d) QCOM uk.finance.yahoo.com has treaded from 69 to 68, wonder of wonders. Let me guess, this one is a keeper, and to be added on dips? Should I be expecting a big mother of all dips coming up? Just wondering :0) As to <<Who can really beat the market without proper DD???? (ggg) >> ... If I am not mistaken, an equally weighted allocation in above 4 gambling chips would have rewarded the speculator a 30 odd percent loss. Do you have an answer now? As to <<(a)Political risk is too high. Out a while ago. A small position anyway. EDIT: Of course, but what political risk? (b)I will do it again at 2-5. Unload again between 13 to 17. EDIT: Naturally, that is what DD is for, telling folks to buy when you were selling (c)I just backed up another truck load of call options and stocks under 20 and 21. This one is a keeper like QCOM if one listens. :-) I will buy even more if it falls below 20 again. EDIT: I am guessing you will be buying more (d)I do not have to tell you more. Read Maurice's. :-) EDIT: neah, I will just wait and see>> Chugs, Jay P.S. I may not know anything about QCOM, but I know enough not to subscribe to their annual report.