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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scripts who wrote (29141)	4/17/2004 12:33:59 AM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 39344

Chart Update In this update I will give you my current thinking on gold and silver stocks. To sum up I believe that we are in a consolidation phase, which I think will resolve itself to the upside. This could take a while and we may be in a trading range for some time, possibly well into the summer. My current strategy is to trade and accumulate some of the smaller juniors. While my bias is bullish I am prepared to follow the pm stocks whichever direction they lead me. See the chart of HUI. Notice that since it has been trading in a range bounded by 240 at the top and 210 at the bottom since the middle of February. While, to my knowledge there are no volume figures available for the HUI. However Media General has a gold stock index which does provide volume figures. I can’t post the chart because I know of no other source for them but Worden Brothers TC-2000 chart program. However the Media General gold index shows that volume slowly built to a peak in January at the top and has gradually eroded since then. I will a move in either direction out of this consolidation in either direction, provided it is accompanied by strong volume. bigcharts.marketwatch.com There are a few things to notice on the chart. If you look at the move up to the January top and observe the stochastic you can see while it oscilatted between the 20 area and the 80 area, the market did not trade sideways for any particular period of time. There were also extended time periods when the market was overbought. In addition the stochastic spend most of its time above 80. However since February the stochastic has been more or less neutral in terms of either bullish or bearish extremes or which is charastic of a consolidating market. One of the reasons that I took some positions in the last few days was the fact that the stochastic was oversold and began to turn up. I probably should have waited for it to rise above 20 but I think this is a relatively safe entry for a trade, or for a long term bull as logical stop points under the recent lows could be used to protect your capital if the market heads south. On a negative note you can observe that since the highs have been made, the MACD has spent almost all of its time in bearish territory. Another reason I think we have a good buy point is that the HUI is at its lower bollinger band which usually turns the index, coupled with the fact that the DMI is trendless. The following chart is a chart of the HUI with different indicators %R and DMI. We see here that the HUI is oversold right now and I would interpret the DMI as trendless. Further reinforcing my observation is the fact that the gold stocks are not moving in unision right now. For example compare ABX Also some of the gold stocks broke triangle formations to the upside in March but now look they may fail without reaching their objective. On the other hand a number of gold stocks broke to the downside in April and now look like they will not reach their target. All of this says to me the market is trendless and the only way to make money in a trendless market is to trade the swings. In summary I will trade the swings. Eventually the trend will become clear and hopefully will give us a signal. As I indicated a great signal would be a move in either direction on high volume by a significant majority of the major gold stocks, accompanied by strength in the price of gold. Until then trade, stay out or look for strong juniors. Some of Claude’s selection are excellent choices. I will leave the discussion of which juniors to others on the thread who have far more knowledge than me. Little joe

To: Scripts who wrote (29141)	4/17/2004 2:55:33 AM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

It has always been my understanding that Cobalt is always a by product of other metals mining. Presumably it is never of sufficient grade to be mined alone. I stand to be corrected though. Inco produces significant Cobalt as does Falconbridge and others I'm sure but I'm betting that it is small percentage wise of their revenues. Cheers C

To: Scripts who wrote (29141)	4/17/2004 7:39:28 AM
From: Frankly Speaking	Respond to of 39344

Ed, I've just started to look at FCO and scooped this excerpt from Stockhouse forum: From FCO website: "Currently, the reserve base stands at Proven and Probable minable reserves of 1,093,188 tons grading 0.652% cobalt, 0.49% copper and 0.018 oz/ton gold with Proven/Probable and Inferred reserves/resources of 3,155,280 tons grading 0.608% cobalt, 0.45% copper and 0.019 oz/ton gold as audited by Mine Development Associates, of Reno, NV. (MDA). Cheers, F.S.

To: Scripts who wrote (29141)	4/17/2004 11:04:05 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

What happened to Canmine: (Feb 2003) "The company has been struggling after spending $5.3 million on a modernization program at its cobalt and nickel refinery in Ontario. That plant was placed on care-and-maintenance basis in early August while the company attempted to restructure its debt (AMM,Aug. 7). The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) met Thursday and suspended trading of the company's shares because Canmine failed to meet listing requirements. A TSX spokesman told AMM that although trading in the stock had been suspended, the company will remain of the board of the exchange for a year before being delisted. The last trade registered for Canmine stock was on Tuesday at 2 cents per share. The 52-week range for the stock was 2 cents to 59 cents. The last time the stock broke the $1 mark was March 14, 2000, when it closed at $1.04. Edward Ellwood, Canmine's president and chief executive officer, who is believed to be among those who resigned, didn't return telephone calls seeking comment. Alison Guerriere aguerriere@amm.com COPYRIGHT 2003 Reed Business Information COPYRIGHT 2003 Gale Group"