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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Runomo™ who wrote (14890)	4/17/2004 9:46:42 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 207049

Excellent observations once again Run. You said; "The open question on Tuesday was will this correction finally take price down with it or is it yet another internal correction with a positive price divergence like the one we had from 6/03 to 8/03 which took the NYSE summation from extreme overbot back close to it's zero line:" By Tuesday The internals were manuevering toward Max pain where options were at stake. I've gotten to the point where this period of the month 11 days Wends pre options to Wends Post options are cast offs to the machine. There doesnt seem to be any context other than options recalibration, protect the trades inner working from payouts. I like stocks without options best because they force those working Mr Markets system to take on added risk, that means added cost. This was a breakthrough period for me. I've recently discovered that characterizing the Systems Intent is of primary importance to building stock time lines which are weighted equally to the underlying fact of supply and demand, and their ability to respond with the systems goals or trend. The 7000 hedge funds working the private wealth business produces effects....the regular fund industry,envious, seems to have gone to ground, with managers finding its better to be the tail of the dog than the head where original thought might be used to perform better than an INDEX. Its the lowering of standards, that sickens me. Me thinks that the program trading now at 50% is the lead dog in the sledge team and all those lined up behind that dog fall into some class or rank where performance metrics are left to maintaining the rhythm of that dogs place in line. Yet, there is hope, and it springs eternal because there are also those who are disconnecting from the system and are out there working on new tactics, tactics which recognize the systems flaws, and are constructing methods of operations which optimize our coexistance with this system. Best to everyone on this Spring weekend.

To: Runomo™ who wrote (14890)	4/17/2004 10:09:14 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 207049

HI MO, I've been waiting for your summation chart analysis. Thanks. If I could go into the dreaded question phase here with you: Do You Think ? "This time it is different": Although the oscillator has gone deeply negative ,the index has not yet bottomed or started it sideways stall. Does this time not need triple successive new lows to signal the reversal.Note that by the time the index stalls or goes sideways,the oscillator has already reached 0 and it may also even be slightly positive.At that point(the oscillator being at or above zero what is being signalled on a realtime data basis? advance/ declines? new highs /new lows? I'm ignorant on what trips the oscillator and I know you've watched it for years. The encouraging observation is the slope of the fall deteriorated substantially friday - that is the drop from 240ish to 200ish (40 points)was a whole lot less than the day before's drop of 310ish to 240ish.(70 points). This gives me hope that the next 3 days should be pivotal.A down dip on any of them - depending on which sector your stock is in, would be a great entry point for a mad money gamble.It looks to me like Monday could fall another 40 points and then we rotate sectors which means the index goes sideways? Looks to me like the oscillator is one to two days into reversal and that leads the index by about 3-4 days,so its close to a perfect dip buy-depending on the sector. As you point out, tech stunk up the market this week - could be a great monday dip buying opportunity?GG Last but not least,price on the NYSE has passed the retest of March 22-24 lows in flying colors.The sector rotation out of tech (NAZ)and into NYSE type "quality stocks" has definitely benefitted price. If this is as low as NYSE goes,it definitely signals a consolidation move to new highs is in the works.A retest and support at 6500 is not even close to a retest of 6350. That begs the question are we thru it all yet? Does NYSE composite have to go thru a test of 6350ish (300 points to go)which would correspond to DJIA's low on 3/24 @10007.49?(445 points to go?) The naz hit 1896.9 on 3/24,well below friday's low of 1982(85.2 points to go?) Looks to me like S&P and Dow have taken a leaders role - which makes me suspect of a real leadership kind of Rally.But then I'm definitely biased towards tech. The other scenario is: there'e a real short feeding frenzy going on at the Naz trough.We all know that short interest in the hands of the retail sellers is the stuff of new market highs. Friday a Raymond James rep on Bloomberg said of all short interest, 50% was held by retail interests.The Naz is lagging and looking weak. Certainly the Naz's performance is so stinky that shorts have to feel pretty smart.I'm hoping they feel so good that they get greedy and double up - their strategy so far is looking real good, in a relative way.The one snafu to it all, is that a retest on the March 24 low @ the Naz is still far from confirmed- the low is 85.2 points away. Me thinks this more psychological divergence(certainly not a TA divergence) is setting up the trap for shorts who are shorting tech stocks. A dip on Monday in the NAZ as S&P and the Dow hold would be a good time to get long - a little more in tech land? Anxious to hear input from you about where we might see the difference between the oscilator vs the index on realtime data? It could be a great tip for timing?? Thanks as always for your thought provoking charts - hope I haven't buried you in questions. Bob If it isn't different this time - then the Index is going to get really LOW and Flatline - something like I've not seen on your chart.The time before in August ,it took the oscillator 45 days and a triple bottom for the index to get as low as where it is now plus or minus 4-6 days. We're close Bro , thanks again for the great charts - you're a brilliant student of the market.