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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12183)4/19/2004 1:14:39 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
then why are you expecting a bond rally? they go hand in hand, don't you think?

Treasuries can rally all the way to 3.7% on the 10 yr without starting another refi boom. That is quite a bit away. Certainly a rally to 4 would be a decent rally yet do nothing for refis. Then we coild selloff to 4.2 rally to 3.9 selloff to 4.1 etc over the next 4 months in effect going nowhwere after the initial rally.

That would be along the lines of what I see. If jobs suck for a couple months however, the rally might be bigger, but having been warned twice, now I think it will be a while before we approach that last low.

M

M



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12183)4/19/2004 1:18:41 PM
From: loantech  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Mr. D,
Everyone and their brother has already refinanced. Some people 2 or 3 times. There is no equity left and rates have given the refi-ers plenty of low rate chances. There are few if any reasons that any one should want or need to refi.
Tom


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