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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (48945)	4/22/2004 9:56:48 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

>>And so I am afraid, and choose to be afraid patiently for a considerable duration<< And so, therein lies the problem. "...for a considerable duration." Your hedge fund friend, who "sold his hovel and rented a shack" may watch the market value of his hovel double or triple before it takes the long anticipated plunge. I would not describe this sell/rent strategy as "well-hedged." Would you? I think I know what will happen and I think I know why. What I think I know can be quantified and back-tested. Can your friend say this? I have an interesting deal with my wife. Three years ago, as a hedge, we sold a large value-maximized house in a Boston suburb and moved to a smaller value-unrealized house in a Boston suburb. So far, this hedge has proved unnecessary and perhaps even foolish. So, here's our deal. If the Dow reaches the neighborhood of 30,000 by 2009, as I think it will, then she has agreed to sell and rent our by-then value-maximized house, on the basis that if I am right on the one thing, she will give me the benefit of the doubt on what comes next.