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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (49031)	4/25/2004 3:53:39 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

The problem with the lab worker infections is the fact that symptoms are over 3 weeks apart indicating that there would have been TWO lab accidents or there are more lab infections connecting the two known infections. Right now there are 180 lab workers in quarantine and the reports of confirmation have been very slow. A hospital official in Anhui was still saying that the index case was not even a suspect case on Thursday, even though she had twice tested positive for SARS antibodies, her mother had died with SARS conditions, her nurse had been confirmed to have developed SARS and three relatives and 2 patients associated with the nurse had SARS symptoms. Full transparency is still somewhat lacking.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (49031)	4/26/2004 8:41:26 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Actually, the nurse's mother is not improving. Cases really don't go into the denominator until they are discharged, so the case fatality rate remains at 100%. However, the death rate will probably be much higher for older patients. Right now the lab workers and nurse are younger, while relatives are older (and their condition is not being described in the official releases out of China). The ones that are doing the best are the younger patients. Speaking of the younger patients, it is looking more and more like two index cases in Beijing discuss.agonist.org