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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7062)	4/28/2004 12:57:50 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Inflation. I guess it is how you measure it. It is ironic that just when people have started to believe that Inflation is back that QUARTERLY CHART LOWS are broken on Precious Metals and HIGHS are broken on Dollar. I am actually looking to buy a little EURO here (at ~1.18) as it is IT (intermediate term) oversold in a NEUTRAL LT (long term) trend. When the higher order trend is Neutral I have found that you can buy when o/sold and sell when o/bt. I expect a bounce here in this USD bull / Gold Bear but do not expect the recent tops (Gold) or lows (dollar) to be taken out. Should a rally occur I will add to longs in $EUR and even $AU; but I am expecting failure and will get out as soon as the IT picture changes and/or we reach IT Overbought. Until/Unless new highs occur in PMs, I am now NEUTRAL to BEARISH Gold on Cyclical time scale and NEUTRAL to BULLISH USD. We need a retracement of these recent moves to test out my thesis that the Cyclical (LT) trend may have changed. The Markets can do anything, but I think the short dollar party is ending. -macavity