Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (5366)	4/28/2004 9:45:29 PM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 60908

Looks like you need to be a subscriber. Little joe

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (5366)	4/28/2004 10:17:52 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60908

crusty, re the esoteric data (Arch Crawford type stuff) I have recently been privy too predicts a huge move in gold, in early May. It was one reason I went back in when I did. The same data predicted a real bottom here, with no indication of how deep. Re the move it was not just a move, but a huge move, per the prediction. I think Sinclair has been looking at some similar stuff - I have no idea who his sources might be. Crawford maybe. I visited Crawford's site - between that and Sinclair comments I believe Crawford has something similar in the works. Crawford makes you pay however.

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (5366)	4/28/2004 11:07:33 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60908

Here's a really big chart showing Gold contract and US$ Index, painted seasonally in a manner "close enough" to the 3 periods you listed, with data back to < 1985. Warning, big chart: trendvue.com If Gold is trending upwards, those periods do tend to have price gains. However, in that sample set of 20 years, gold has really trended up only twice on the weekly chart. In 30 years, its trended up only three times on the monthly chart. I suggest to you that if a market can't trend on the weekly or monthly charts, its not really a rally worth noting. Perhaps the takeaway is this: its equally as likely that any period in a trending market is a good time to buy. Gold. For completeness, here's another chart with Gold alone, data < 1975, monthly bars. Once it stated to trend out of the 1976 low, keeping it until the spike top was the right plan, not selling it due to seasonality. trendvue.com Here's a more detailed look at the 76 rally to the top. You can see clearly what I am talking about by trending - higher highs and higher lows on the monthly chart. trendvue.com A tangent: if we use the classical definition of "up trend" and apply a big time frame (monthly charts), there really are only three up cycles worth noting in all that time. The 76-80 rally (which technically did not end until a lower low was set in 81 but those would be big stops!); 85-88; and 01-?? perhaps 2004. Which brings us back to the more important question right now - whether Gold is reversing its trend or not. The first shot across the bow has been made.