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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12809)	4/28/2004 10:22:49 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 110194

Yes, as more of the dangers were revealed, the government in Baja California felt like saps being the dumping ground for America's dangerous industrial projects. Personally I believe money could make that approval possible. It is after all an empty desert. One the other hand if an LNG port is too dangerous for an unpopulated desert, where might it be safe?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12809)	4/29/2004 11:35:50 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I've been reading your Generational Storm book by Kotlikoff. Looks like western economies will stay down for the count for a few decades on this one. About the only thing I can think of that will mitigate this might be huge and inexpensive medical advances to treat all these "baby boom" old timers. That's probably pie in the sky though. Although most of this impact is a few years off (starts in 2008, as the aging python worms it way through the dependency tract, he writes something here and now on page 141: "Any day now, bond traders who truth be known, can be thick as bricks, may start to react to our official deficit that is running at 5 percent of GDP. Another flash point could be Alan Greenspan's retirement. Greenspan has told the bond market what to think for so long that it's largely forgotten to think on it's own (). His exit could prompt a reappraisal of the financial and fiscal landscape. The sequence of events might run like this. Greenspan leaves. The dollar slides. Long interest rates rise. The CBO issues a warning about US fiscal sustainability. The IMF comes out with a similar report. Rates rise some more. Inflation picks up owing to higher import prices, which is due to the weaker dollar. Long term rates move into the double-digit rates, and the stock market tanks (). The Federal Reserve prints more money to lower rates, but this raises long-term rates even further. The economy move into recession, deficits hit 7 percent of GDP, inflation hits double digits. The government cuts taxes even more to stimulate economic activity, and we're off to the races: hyperinflation. () CI explains why. Message 20065277 (**) Obviously, the stock market isn't going to need double digit rates to tank.