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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (12946)	4/30/2004 1:30:49 PM
From: Mannie	Respond to of 110194

Obscure inflation note... The price of building materials in Vietnam is exploding, at projects we are working on, we've seen material costs move up 30% over the last 6 weeks. I'm not sure of the relevance to the discussion here, other than there is evidence of world wide price pressure on building materials.

To: russwinter who wrote (12946)	4/30/2004 1:35:16 PM
From: Activatecard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why home prices are about to plummet--and take the recovery with them. "What drives most appreciation in housing prices is the universal human desire to own a slightly larger and more expensive place than one can really afford; a desire restrained in normal times by the universal desire of those who lend money to get paid back." washingtonmonthly.com

To: russwinter who wrote (12946)	4/30/2004 1:42:39 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Then You Would Agree the BOJ is the Co-Enabler of the F3IP? Inflation in Milk Prices, for me, is the most excellent example of the economy telling the Fed: your plan to stimulate the real economy with an emergency-level interest rate is not working. I pair this example of energy-cost inflation with the continued solid evidence of deflating wage and job growth. But even if the Fed arrests this credit expansion--which has failed in its primary purpose (But not in its secondary purpose--keeping things afloat for a while longer...), has not the BOJ got about 10 years head start on the same policy, with no end in sight either? Is the world not awash in Yen? The problem of course remains that this economy, and the Commodity-China Daisy Chain, is driven by US over-consumption. If only the Fed controlled Credit Card interest rates as directly as brokerage margin-interest can be controlled, Russ. Finally we have the issue of Desire. I think you want to see the cultural desire for consumption, here in the US, duly whacked, thwacked, and attacked. But cultures are hard to change unless dragged kicking and screaming... And no one dares "call the loan", Russ. The world does not dare to call the loan that is the aggregate debt of America.