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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (12964)	4/30/2004 5:35:19 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<huge dollar short position that is about to be squeezed.> A huge dollar short has already been squeezed . Just looking at the FX subtotal on the Comex commitmentsoftraders.com the specs were long currencies (short the dollar) 257,133 futures w/options on Feb. 17. Now it's only 8,196, nothing left to squeeze. On the big commodity longs, here are the numbers before Wednesday's big flush. Gold: spec long 225,609 on 4-6, Tuesday 4/27: 125,599, over 110,000 spec sold in three weeks is pretty unprecedented, plus Wed's dump. Copper: peak was long 44,487 on 2/17 (near $1.40), 4/27 was 15,410, big price drop Wed. Silver: Even silver which seems to have a permanent commercial short (as we've discussed): 4-6 spec long 96,962, 4/27 was 74,658. Energy still has a very large spec long position of 234,525, so be careful. Grains subtotal: A bunch of specs were flushed out here too, 416,460 on 3-30 to 306,111 now. Here's a biggie: Specs were long 120,275 of the 5/10/30 bond subtotal 0n Feb. 24, now they are short 260,340 as of 4/27. Look at the swing in Eurodollars, specs long 242,932 in 1-20, are now short 476,628. Specs are now long 28,756 of SPX-subgroup. I have to conclude that 1. the USD starts to weaken again 2. commodity prices firm and/or strengthen. 3. there's a bond rally in the short run. 4. stock market is generally weak. Sounds like bad economic news is coming to me.