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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (12984)	4/30/2004 5:44:37 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

Russ thanks for you cot analysis. Looks like an upcoming POG rally for sure. Tom

To: russwinter who wrote (12984)	4/30/2004 6:01:45 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>> A huge dollar short has already been squeezed . Just looking at the FX subtotal on the Comex commitmentsoftraders.com the specs were long currencies (short the dollar) 257,133 futures w/options on Feb. 17. Now it's only 8,196, nothing left to squeeze. << Thanks. Exactly what I needed to hear to buy more PM issues on this dip. There is no way the FED is raising come Tues or even changing their language given the econ numbers so far. There has been no discernable trend change that say that job creation has come back. We'll need at the very least 2-3 more months of decent growth to confirm. That combined with this COT info gives me more hope we're relative close to an IT bottom at least w/respect to time. Can't rule out one last flush if the market continues to head south ST.

To: russwinter who wrote (12984)	4/30/2004 7:09:05 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Keep Partying Like It’s 1999? northerntrust.com

To: russwinter who wrote (12984)	5/1/2004 11:11:43 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Energy still has a very large spec long position of 234,525, so be careful. what is your feeling about why there has not been a flush in energy, as there has been in the other commodities? in my own simplistic fashion, it seems the speculation is all in the near months as the far-month contracts do not budge and, e.g., in oil, remain 10 dollars or more below the front month. it seems these far contracts are not good for specs, as they are too illiquid. but i guess they, too, could be subject to a drawdown in the event of an energy crash. but at least they already have 10 dollars of price cushion vs the spot. also, it seems to me the backwardation must point to a certain negative sentiment regarding energies, the heavy front month specs notwithstanding