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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (49291)5/12/2004 12:19:10 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Moom, I don't want it hot and wet. I don't believe that adding about 10% of the atmospheric CO2 is going to make it hot and wet. At best, I think we'll avoid another glaciation period.

See previous post 35% so far and heading for doubling, tripling etc. if we don't do something soon...

But if it did get wet, it wouldn't be a big deal. Cities need upgrading more often than every hundred years. Economic cycles work in 15 years, or 20 years for investments. Returns after 20 years are usually not particularly relevant. It's the returns in the first decade or two of investment which represent the great majority of returns.

OK but we'd have less land - why would we want that? Buildings are rebuilt too but city streets and locations change slowly.

Meanwhile, it's silly to worry about the low risk of a few metres sea level rise over 100 or 200 years compared with the high risk of a 50 metre instant sea level rise due to small size bolides.

Local effect which is relevant I agree.

The fashion now seems to be that global warming will cause an ice age, thanks to the Gulf Stream being turned off, which I also don't believe will happen since ice has been melting in a very big way for 10,000 years and it didn't stop and cause an ice age to return.

A relative cooling of Europe not an ice age and I think that even that relative cooling is exaggerated. The NW US and Canada are not that much cooler (though Sweden and Russia would probably have a bigger impact than the UK and France).

The relative trickle of water from Greenland etc is trivial compared with the vast floods accompanying the big melt as the ice cover moved north across North American and the Russian/European land masses.

There was an event called the "Younger Dryas"... This time around the smaller amount of water would be combined with further warming of the surface waters. It is the overall density of water that is important (salinity and temperature).

One thing I'd suggest is tariffs, which would make oil relatively more expensive. That would have a dual good effect in that it would reduce greenhouse gases, since they are considered bad, and make local production with lots of labour laws and environmental protection more competitive.

Taxing oil, makes coal more attractive in the US and that has greater greenhouse emissions...

I just had an interesting visit to West Virginia where I met people in the "energy business". They're into building wind turbines now...