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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (49543)	5/6/2004 12:38:56 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Spotted Cat: Chance for a summer rally? 1. Fed Kept Low Overnight Rate 2. Dollar did not sell off vis-a-vis the Euro and Yen much 3. Gold barely moved 4. In spite of the Bank of England strongly indicating a position of intending to raise rates the pound sold off. Therefore: Interest rate differential as driver of exchange rate being replaced by economic growth. Strong US economic growth expected, fueling investment into dollar denominated investments. Friday's job number will either support or dispute this notion. My thinking is: A. Jobs over 180,000: growth story solidifies, be a dollar bull thus a chance for a summer rally B. Jobs significantly under 180,000: bearish US dollar stance, Fed on hold until August, less chance of summer rally Wild cards that muddy the picture: oil, China If China instability, Jay's implosion prevails If oil price stays high/rises more, deflation prevails