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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (49564)	5/6/2004 2:13:13 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The high price of oil has presaged every economic downturn. The high of oil, immediately in the Iranian revolution of 1981 when supplies were disrupted and oil went to $40, an inflation-adjusted $100 today. "most of the major downturns in the industrialized world since the 1970s have been foreshadowed by crude oil shocks". Source: May 5/04 WSJ. High oil prices cause recessions. Recessions are deflationary. High oil prices do not 'respond' to inflation, they are a predictor of slowdowns and lower inflation and possible deflation. Low oil prices cause are an economic stimulus. When the economy is stimulated inflation will rise. The economy can them be stimulated by monetary and fiscal policy, if fiscal policy a low Fed Funds rate would cause inflation, as it is now. Therefore the high price of oil may extend the current run of low interest rates but, because oil prices are high, returns from energy trusts can outperform, say, inflation-indexed bonds. Inflation slowing would be good for REITs if they were priced at the market, but many are priced above the market so even in a benign interest rate environment, REITS may not be able to provide much more performance, but it will depend on the premium investors will pay.

To: energyplay who wrote (49564)	5/6/2004 2:40:14 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

See RIOCAN ? finance.yahoo.com I dunno I'm looking at my two fav's Acclaim and Baytex and old fav Advantage a bit.. been talking about this a bit privately but I'm having big trouble committing.... I'm currently low balling some bids but I'm being very tepid even on the bid sizes. New asset class ... pet food ? ;o) EDIT And this other Canucky REIT... finance.yahoo.com I tell ya it's foggy out there... A can't see a lot of the same things Jay can't see I think :o)