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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (42496)	5/6/2004 8:20:22 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793731

Partners for Democracy Argus Blog In one hour, Georgia went from, in the words of the Telegraph, the brink of civil war to jubilation. Those are the headlines anyway. President Saakashvili did move his forces to the border. He flexed. He showed Aslan Abashidze that he was serious. Abashidze mined the port of Batumi, holding one of Georgia's most important economic facilities hostage so that he could maintain his fiefdom. Why wasn't there war? Look back through my Caucasus archives. Yes, there were committed protesters, but there were also violent paramilitaries and soldiers willing to keep Abashidze in power. Thank God for the Russian-American friendship. Because of it, a close US ally (Georgia is the second largest recipient of US aid and just quintupled its troop commitment to Iraq) was never nearly as close to civil war as the press, and certainly on some occasions, I, would have had you believe. We hear plenty about conflicts between the US and pretty much everyone else between pages A1 & B1 of most daily newspapers. That is just not true. The world is made up of plenty of backwaters where partnership between the US and its [sarcasm quotes]allies[/sarcasm quotes], or just Americans because they are the only foreigners there (may I mention again that Peace Corps Volunteers are about the only foreigners Uzbeks will ever meet that speak their language?). Twice in six months, the United States and Russia have told corrupt, authoritarian, Soviet dinosaurs that it's their time to shuffle off into the sunset. Each time it was against Russia's better interests. Each time, the United States was firm in its commitment and made this commitment clear to Russia, the world, and Georgian leaders who insisted on holding back their people for personal gain. With the Ajaria situation, we also had a Georgian leader that took the world to task for its willingness to sell short Ajarian human rights and dignity for the sake of stability. Say what you will about the Bush administration. Tell me it's all about oil. Tell me it's a plot to substitute fine Georgian wine with Coke. Tell me Saakashvili, a US-trained lawyer, was groomed for this role by the CIA. I don't care. Bottom line: half a million people are free tonight that weren't free this morning. Why? The Bush administration, the State Department in particular, did a fantastic job of sticking to its values and convincing Russia to stand by our side to bring freedom to Ajaria. If that's unilateralism and cynical manipulation in pursuit of profits, pass it on down, I want some more. A brief chronology (as best I can make it out) in extended A dispute had been simmering since March elections. It got really hot when: Ajaria destroyed bridges connecting it with Georgia to keep government troops out. Saakashvili gave a 10 day ultimatum to Ajaria to straighten up. Russia said it wanted to keep its troops uninvolved. Abashidze said he would disregard the ultimatum. The Europeans say it's everyone's fault and no one's and tell Georgia to cool it if it wants to be part of Europe. Russia blames Tbilisi. The US places blame squarely on Abashidze. Georgia takes the world to task for tacitly encouraging Abashidze and turning a blind eye to human rights abuses. Saakashvili called for a popular uprising. Ajarians answered. Ajarian forces attacked protesters at Batumi University. Rather than frightening the people, even more turn out. PM Zhvania says negotiations start with Abashidze's resignation. This morning, Saakashvili warned Abashidze loyalists, telling them they had mere hours to defect to avoid bloodshed. Someone (presumably Ajaria) rigged the Batumi port with mines. Yuri Luzhkov, Mayor of Moscow, showed up to arrange for Abashidze's safety with Tbilisi before heading to Batumi to show Abashidze the writing on the wall. Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Ivanov went to Batumi as well. Stratfor says that this is all a result of a Bush-Putin discussion. Saakashvili offered safe passage to Abashidze and his family as people continued to defect to Tbilisi. Abashidze flees.