Despite Recovery, Bush Is Facing
Doubts on Economy, Poll Finds
By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
May 6, 2004 8:09 a.m.
WASHINGTON -- President Bush, already grappling with growing doubts about his Iraq policy, is facing a more surprising obstacle to re-election: voters' persistent worries about the economy.
Despite months of strong growth and recent good news on payroll jobs, six in 10 American voters say the economy is heading for trouble rather than prosperity, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Moreover, the proportion of Americans who say the economy has improved in the past year has declined significantly since January, as has the proportion who believe it will improve in the next year.
With six in 10 voters also concluding that events in Iraq have slipped out of U.S. control, Mr. Bush's slim national lead in the presidential campaign depends, for now, largely on doubts about Democratic challenger John Kerry that the president is stoking in stump attacks and a barrage of negative television ads.
"The president is skating on ice that's one-half inch thick," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with his Republican counterpart Robert Teeter.
Indeed, poll results reflect a mood closer to the unsuccessful 1992 re-election campaign of the current president's father than to prevailing sentiment during Bill Clinton's successful bid for a second term in 1996. Only 42% say they are better off than four years ago, compared with 33% who say they are worse off and 23% reporting "about the same." Pluralities of political independents, swing voters and senior citizens say they have become worse off under Mr. Bush.
"Voters see neither peace nor prosperity on the horizon," say Messrs. Hart and Teeter in a memo summarizing the results.
The national survey of 1,012 registered voters, which carries a margin of error of three percentage points, was conducted Saturday through Monday, as news of abuse of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. forces was widely reported. (See related article.)
To be sure, the economy has been growing steadily. Business investment has rebounded and employers have begun hiring. The unemployment rate, at 5.7% in March, is down from its June peak of 6.3%. At the same time, the surge in oil prices is pushing up gasoline prices, inflation is returning as a consumer concern and interest rates on mortgages, car loans and credit cards are clearly on the rise.
Kerry strategists concede privately that Mr. Bush's position could strengthen if Iraq stabilizes and voters gain greater confidence in the economic recovery. Moreover, the poll shows that Mr. Kerry hasn't benefited yet from the doubts besetting the president, and still trails him in a head-to-head match.
HOLDING ON
See a comparison of President Bush's May approval ratings to those of his incumbent predecessors.
But four in 10 Bush supporters say they might reconsider their vote for reasons including the economy losing more jobs, events in Iraq growing worse or the president emphasizing conservative social issues such as banning same-sex marriage or abortion. Another worry for the president is the growing war tab; the White House is seeking another $25 billion in funding from Congress (See related article.)
Six months before Election Day, these are hardly the circumstances Mr. Bush had planned on. His advisers have pointed to the ouster of Saddam Hussein, strong consumer confidence at home and Mr. Bush's reputation for leadership as evidence that political fundamentals are lining up in the president's favor. Instead, he is dealing with unease over Iraq and fears over job losses to competitors such as China and India.
The poll shows Mr. Bush, still benefiting from his performance after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, maintains a reputation for leadership, and that Mr. Kerry still must persuade Americans he would be an acceptable replacement. But if he can do so, history suggests he has a solid chance of following the path of Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- the only three challengers to oust incumbents since World War II.
That dynamic presages fiercer Republican attacks on Mr. Kerry in the months ahead -- but political trouble for Mr. Bush should the Massachusetts senator recover momentum lost after his Democratic primary victories. Seeking to counter Mr. Bush's ad blitz, Mr. Kerry this week launched a $25 million flight of ads touting his service in Vietnam and in public life.
The Republican incumbent's approval rating slipped to 47%, the lowest of his presidency, while a 49% plurality of voters say he doesn't deserve a second term. By a 50%-to-33% margin, voters say the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
The survey also documents the toll that violence and disorder in Iraq have taken on Americans' confidence. Though six in 10 continue to back Mr. Bush's decision to oust Saddam Hussein, a 47% plurality says the war wasn't worth its human and financial costs to the U.S. Two-thirds of the electorate says the U.S. should hand over power to Iraqis as scheduled next month, even though an equivalent proportion say Iraqis won't be prepared to run a government.
"The images that voters see on their television screens surmount everything else," say Messrs. Hart and Teeter. While Mr. Bush promises to "stay the course," a 55% majority favors withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq within 18 months, while the proportion who say they should remain "as long as necessary" has fallen to 44% from 56% in January. Voters predict by 51% to 27% that the country won't be maintain a stable democratic government.
Yet the poll's findings on the economy may be the most worrisome for Republicans. While events in Iraq have deteriorated, the president's aides have argued that evidence of economic resurgence was bolstering support for his re-election. Mr. Bush this week has attempted to capitalize on that with a Midwestern bus tour delivering the message, "Yes, America Can."
Voters remain skeptical. Disapproval of Mr. Bush's handling of the economy, 53% to 41%, represents the weakest showing of his presidency. After months of high-profile discussion of job losses, the proportion of Americans who expect better times in the next year has fallen to 42% from 50% in January. By 51% to 40% voters say Mr. Bush's tax cuts were too large, while a 63% majority shrugs off recent stock-market gains as benefiting "only businesses and investors," not "nearly all Americans."
So far, Mr. Kerry has failed to capitalize on such numbers. In a hypothetical November matchup, he trails Mr. Bush by 46% to 42%, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 5%. The Democratic challenger does little better in a matchup without Mr. Nader, trailing 48% to 45%.
Mr. Kerry continues to lag in voter assessments of the candidates' personal qualities. Just 38% express positive views of the Massachusetts senator, down from 43% in March, while the proportion regarding him negatively has risen to 38% from 30% two months ago. One reason for that drop is Mr. Bush's spring offensive, which muddied the vaguely flattering reputation Mr. Kerry began building during his Democratic primary triumphs last winter.
In particular, the number of voters who say they are concerned about Mr. Kerry "straddling both sides of issues" has risen to 49% from 42% in March. The Bush campaign has been especially energetic in targeting what it calls Mr. Kerry's flip-flops. Mr. Kerry also suffers from being less well-known than Mr. Bush. While only 8% of Americans express neutral views of the president, a fourth say they're neutral about Mr. Kerry or don't know him.
At the same time, six in 10 Americans say that Mr. Kerry "has the right experience and background to be president," an assessment comparable to that given Mr. Bush as governor of Texas when he sought the 2000 Republican presidential nomination. Moreover, Democrats appear slightly more hostile to Mr. Bush than Republicans are toward Mr. Kerry. Fully 62% of Kerry and Nader supporters called it "extremely important" that Mr. Bush be defeated, compared to 50% of Bush backers who say the same of the president's re-election. |
