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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (5863)	5/8/2004 8:15:57 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I think you've come close to nailing it here, and in one important respect (real wages), you've actually understated your case. We are getting a heavy dose of Ministry of Propaganda claptrap (), and as usual the cognoscenti are sitting at the edge of their seats, taking it all in with baited breath. Ironically the bond rout should quickly kick in big cutbacks in the "stalwarts" of retailing, the bloated financial sector, homebuilders/construction/real estate (). And how about state and local government? They've been very dependent on rolling over debt at lower rates. This got in just in the nick of time: sddt.com ()The Daily Treasury Statement, based on taxes paid on wages doesn't really lie. It's showing only modest growth, up 1.5% in April. And remember, April last year was during the war, and we were in a true slump still. Let's see how the comparables for May-July look like, as the economy in 2003 truly picked up from the hyper-stimulus. And the 3% you can add for the new tax rate, will no longer be a factor going forward. With actual inflation probably now running at 5% plus, 1.5% (spread among more people) just doesn't cover these "new" expenses (largely subsistence items like food and energy), so in real wages are are almost depressionary. (**) Let's key on the mortgage purchase index, not so much next Wed, but the following two, as that will reflect the new mortgage rate. If it plunges below 380-400, I think we can start assuming the housing bubble is being damaged. The actual top likely went in during March. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50,200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G

To: mishedlo who wrote (5863)	5/8/2004 9:47:22 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 116555

Mish, the most fun is trying to figure out which statistical mislead the crooks will use next month to pretend that all is well. And, as Jimmy Durante used to say, "I gotta a million of them." <G>

To: mishedlo who wrote (5863)	5/8/2004 10:27:26 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

In March, with all the expiring benefits, a whole bunch of people ran out and took anything they could find (part time jobs at Walmart or wherever), creating a one time aboration of (+308,000) 3) This showed up in March stats when 296,000 people complained about working part time for economic reasons does this mean the 296K people are part of the 308K people? or are the 296K people just part of the employed workforce? if the latter, then the interpretation that 296K part-time jobs were added seems incorrect.