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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (13466)	5/8/2004 8:20:31 AM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I broke even too...100% cash. What sectors are you shorting and are you shorting any ETF"s.?

To: orkrious who wrote (13466)	5/8/2004 9:10:23 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

Well at least I've been following most of my own advice about not just being long PMs or the long, long, long everything trade. I knew that would be a disaster for those who were only long. However, the bargains in metals lured me back in early. For example, I've wanted to be a NTO shareholder for two friggin' years, just waiting, checking up on them, reaching over and pulling out "their folder", reading it over, and drooling, and waiting "patiently" for the inflection point. I'm obsessed about metal shortages now, and oddly I seem to be kind of alone as usual. Usually this time of year, I follow sports, basketball playoffs and the M's. Now it's copper draw-downs. kitcometals.com I keep thinking, when is there going to be a copper buying panic? Should I add even more, "when I see the whites of their eyes"? But, isn't "this" (309,163 MT combined LME and Comex) the whites of their eyes? Should I wait until all the specs are out (13,690 futures w options last Tuesday)? Will that really happen with only nine days of annual demand in inventory above ground? Surely they aren't stupid enough to go short are they, I think out load? Should I wait a bit longer to see if there is a "slowdown"? Of course there's going to be a slowdown, tell me something new? I think the US housing boom is going to bust, but it's impact on copper won't be felt for awhile. Meanwhile I just track it, tick, tick, tick. 4-22: 344,727 4-23: 340,942 4-26: 336,755 4-27: 333,426 4-28: 329,257 4-29: 327,175 4-30: 324,316 5-4: 319,468 5-5: 316,632 5-6: 312,842 5-7: 309,163 The math is pretty straightforward. At the draw-down rate (74,000 MT), of the last thirty days, copper is still in an annual supply deficit of 888,000, and that's 7.5% of current copper usage. That demand would have to disappear (a monster depression)in the next several weeks, to prevent the Train Wreck. I don't see BCA claiming that when they put out this "playbook" nonsense.: bcaresearch.com Is that enough for a price rationing panic, 306, 302, 298, 295, 290? Lower? At the 1.16 level or lower on the Septs, I'm gonna have to pull the trigger on a lot more I'm afraid.