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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (29480)	5/8/2004 10:38:27 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

Thanks. I have great respect for the BCA. Used to get their interest rate analysis service where I worked. But I also think they are wrong. The "slowdown in Chinese demand is over hyped. It is a slowdown, not a net decrease in demand. I posted this on another board. My comments are In (( )). This type of article saves the Chinese millions of dollars on imports contracted after the impact of such articles. And yet the article really does not demonstrate a decrease in demand, for anything. Understanding Chinese by: gwohanka 05/08/04 10:20 am Msg: 10337 of 10337 Reuters China economy shows signs of cooling down-report Friday May 7, 11:44 pm ET BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - Some sectors of China's overheated economy, including real estate, have shown signs of cooling, the China Daily said on Saturday. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Reuters last week China was committed to forceful measures to cool its dangerously fast-growing economy, which has benefited global growth, but left unchecked, has the potential to drag it down. Investment in real estate and some other overheated industries has slowed and demand for major commodities would ease during the second quarter, the China Daily said, citing a Ministry of Commerce report. The supply of 462 categories of commodities -- or 77 percent of all categories -- would outstrip demand in the second quarter, the newspaper said. ((When one uses 462 categories of commodities one can hide anything and everything. Supply of carrots and green beans may be up but oil, coal, cotton and iron ore could be down.)) The Chinese economy logged 9.7 percent growth in the first quarter of the year but faces resurgent inflation because of expansion of the money supply, bank credit and fixed asset investment. China would manage to balance oil supply and demand through expansion of oil exploration, growing imports and increased output of oil products, the newspaper said. ((Supply will be met with expansion of imports. Exploration does not change immediate supply. Imports mentioned because production alone wont meet demand)) But an electricity shortage would become more serious as the summer draws nearer, it said, adding that haphazard investment and low expansion were to blame for the worst energy shortage in more than a decade. ((Raw material imports will be needed to expand power production)) Domestic output and imports of steel would increase rapidly by the end of the second quarter, the newspaper said. ((So if domestic production of steel is going to increase rapidly, will imports of iron ore and Ni decrease?)) Fertiliser production and imports would see steady growth but exports would fall sharply. Supply would be enough to meet needs, it said. ((Supply crunch? Why else do exports fall even as production and imports ramp up? Gas and oil are raw materials for some fertilizer)) Cotton and edible oil imports would continue to rise, the newspaper said. Grain reserves would be lower but would hold steady during the second quarter. ((No decline here)) Coal output would continue to grow and falling exports would help meet growing domestic demand, the newspaper said. ((Again unable to export as much)) ((China wins short term as commodity prices crash on headlines proclaiming slowdown. The facts show only slowing of growth, not a decline in demand.))