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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (29481)	5/8/2004 11:03:16 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 39344

Very good comments on these article points. Even if it ends up being a net decrease in demand, it won't happen in the next five minutes or even "in time" to divert a real Train Wreck. Nor do I expect to see demand shut off at say $1.15 Cu. Demand will be shut down when it's price rationed, and at what I believe are much higher prices. The bet one is making right now at this most interesting phase in key commodities in short supply is: will they run out or down faster than China (and the world) can reduce, not slow demand. As you've pointed out, slow versus reduce, is a key distinction. As it stands today, I even have my doubts about "slow", let alone "reduce". For example, this sure doesn't look like an immediate downturn in copper demand for housing starts to me, at least in the time frame we are talking about: Message 20094366 I'd also like to comment on BCA's use of Marketvane sentiment indicators, show bulls "at a still high level". Notice their use of "smoothed". They are taking an emotional, high beta commodity, and trying to apply a completely undisclosed trailing time lag to it. That's like using trailing twelve month inflation, in today's environment. It's completely bogus, misleading analysis. I'll just take last week's Market Vane on copper if anybody has it?

To: aknahow who wrote (29481)	5/8/2004 7:04:09 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

you may well be correct, but how can one be certainn of any of the funnymentals within China. the charts wont lie for long

To: aknahow who wrote (29481)	5/8/2004 10:00:35 PM
From: Stephen O	Respond to of 39344

George You have hit the nail right on the button, for Little Joe it means your comments are right on target. The old paradigms revolve around the US being the centre of the universe for commodities. The hot money hedge funds are like sheep and now there is even more of them. You can't short copper for ever, sometime you have to deliver. I remember the Chinese were shorting zinc in 1997 when they had to buy to cover their shorts, zinc zoomed to over 70c a lb. The Chinese came a real cropper then and no doubt have learned a lesson.

To: aknahow who wrote (29481)	5/9/2004 12:56:03 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

China launches campaign to save resources (Xinhua) Updated: 2004-05-07 22:16 China has launched a three-year campaign to save and promote comprehensive utilization of major resources for the purpose of maintaining sustainable economic and social development. A notice issued recently by the General Office of the State Council calls on all localities to join the efforts to save and make effective use of resources such as energy, raw materials, water and land. The notice says, China's per capita arable land, freshwater, forest, petroleum, natural gas and coal is far lower than the world's average, and reserves of iron, copper, aluminum and other major mineral resources are also very low. "Insufficient supply of resources has become a major factor that holds back economic and social development," it says. The three-year campaign is aimed at markedly improving the effective use of resources, with energy consumption reduced by 5 percent for every 10,000 yuan (US$1,200) of GDP, water consumption by 10 percent for every 10,000 yuan of GDP and the use of recycled water increased by 5 percentage points. The campaign is also expected to raise the use of renewable resources and curb the trend of decreasing arable land, it says. The notice calls on all localities and government departments at all levels, especially officials, to put into effect the scientific concept of development and take effective measures for this purpose. Task forces composed of officials from the central government departments concerned will be formed to carry out scrutiny in regions sustaining electricity and water shortage and major cities, industries and enterprises in their work to save resources. chinadaily.com.cn