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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (40711)	5/12/2004 10:20:39 AM
From: Cooters	Respond to of 196740

As I stated before, I think that these estimates would have to be very conservative or risking the credibility that they have gained over the last two years wouldnt make much sense. Exactly. They have a very unique insight into the progression of WCDMA, since they are making it go.....<gg> I have never doubted the demand for WCDMA, so I take this forecast as......well........time to buy the 2006's and worry about the 2007's later. Considering there are some 2005 earnings estimates still down below $2.00/sh, and my crayon says $3/sh is in the bag(CY2005, not sure about FY2005) with well north of that quite possible, I think we are going to see some major revisions once these numbers sink in. Cooters

To: slacker711 who wrote (40711)	5/12/2004 11:16:18 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196740

Slacker. Re: Q increased guidance and “Why” Regarding- 1. “Qualcomm has NEVER had perfect visibility.” True, I doubt if there is such a thing as I would think there is always the possibility of something going wrong. 2. “ If Qualcomm had been able to forecast the current upturn in November '03, they would have secured quite a bit more fab capacity.” I believe a large part of the capacity problem was the delay in some of their customers migrating to the 6xxxx series chipsets. Perhaps they should have better anticipated this also and by not so doing it only goes to prove that they (the Q) are not perfect. 3.”The farther out they forecast, the dicier the forecasts become.” I imagine that is generally true for most forecasts. Looking at the macro wireless picture, I believe most “experts” in the mobile wireless industry would conclude that 3G is just beginning to ramp and that the transition from 2G GSM to CDMA (including WCDMA) based networks will result in a significantly higher (and growing) proportion of CDMA based handsets. Also, wireless continues to grow at a significant pace in the developing markets of SE Asia where penetration rates are very low. Given CDMA’s growing share in a growing wireless market, and the feature-rich handsets now hitting the markets (and continuing to add improvements) driving a robust replacement cycle, it would appear that the “Best is yet to Come” for CDMA / Qualcomm and that forecasting 3 to 5 years of strong growth should not require rocket science (baring SARs, terrorism, and other external forces) 4. “Personally, I think the numbers they gave could prove to be conservative, but there are plenty of things that could go wrong....and have in the past.” I also personally agree that “the numbers they gave could prove to be conservative “. I however think there is less of a chance that “plenty of things that could go wrong” (baring SARs, terrorism, and other external forces). The Q has the world as its addressable market now, where as in the past their market was concentrated in basically Korea and the U.S. and subject to isolated issues impacting those markets. With CDMA’s acceptance in the developing world, the world phone’s ability to capture GSM upgrades, and WCDMA beginning to ramp, the dominant GSM markets are now ripe for CDMA / Qualcomm expansion. 5. QCOM is trading based upon 2005 analyst consensus estimates of $2.14, which appears unreasonably low considering future growth prospects. 2004 $2.01....................156 2005 $2.14...+6%..........205...31% + FY 2005 is only 4+ months from now, not a great distance from now. + Analysts should be able at the present time to provide a reasonable forecast for FY 2005 based the Qualcomm provided and industry metrics. + Given the above, IMO it is reasonable to believe that the analyst community should be able to provide a reasonable forecast of the Q’s next FY when it is within 4 months of such, rather wait until 2 months into such (Nov) and after typically receiving Q’s guidance before doing such. Personally I am happy that the Q had the foresight to support its long-term loyal investors by breaking tradition and giving the “analyst” community something “official” to hang their hats on now rather that waiting until November.