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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 8:38:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. new jobless claims up, 4-wk avg dips to 4-year low By Corbett B. Daly WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time rose in the latest week while the average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell to its lowest level since the month of the last presidential election, the Labor Department said Thursday. First-time claims in the week ended May 8 rose by 13,000 to 331,000, while the average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell by 7,750 to 335,750, the department said. The four-week average is the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 25, 2000. Economists say the four-week average is more accurate than volatile weekly number, which is subject to large revisions.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 8:55:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. retail sales fall 0.5% in April WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. retail sales dropped 0.5 percent in April, reversing only part of March's 2 percent rise, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. It was the first decline in seasonally adjusted sales since September. Economists were expecting a decline of about 0.3 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Excluding the 1.8 percent drop in auto sales, retail sales fell 0.1 percent compared with the expectation of a 0.3 percent drop. Year-to-date sales are up 9.2 percent. Building and garden store sales fell 0.7 percent in April after a record 11 percent gain in March. Department store sales fell 1.7 percent. Other sectors, including electronics, furniture and food, were strong.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 8:56:13 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

IMHO they to the employment report is wages and hours worked not only "employed" There is a word or 2 missing here. Please clarify Thanks M

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 9:06:13 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ECB SURVEY - economists cut euro zone 2004, 2005 growth forecasts UPDATE Thursday, May 13, 2004 9:50:25 AM FRANKFURT (AFX) - Economists surveyed by the European Central Bank cut their forecast for euro zone 2004 growth to 1.6 pct from 1.8 pct, the ECB said in its May monthly bulletin Experts taking part in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) also cut their projection for 2005 growth to 2.1 pct from 2.2 pct The economists left their 2004 inflation forecast unchanged at 1.8 pct, but raised their 2005 inflation forecast to 1.8 pct from 1.7 pct The ECB said the downward revision in the 2004 and 2005 growth forecasts is the result of recent rises in commodity prices, past exchange rate developments, subdued domestic demand and uncertainty relating to structural reforms "The main factors mentioned by respondents as supporting the growth outlook are, on the external side, the pick-up in global activity, and on the domestic side, an upswing in investment supported by improved profit developments and favourable financing conditions," the ECB said In terms of the raised 2005 inflation forecast, the ECB said there had been a clear increase in the number of respondents citing commodity price rises as an upward factor "Possible indirect tax and administered price increases, due to the worsening of fiscal balances in some countries, are also factors cited as exerting an upward influence on prices," it said. "Whilst past exchange rate movements are still mentioned as a downward factor, they are given less importance than in the previous round," the bank added Notwithstanding the downward revisions to GDP growth, the ECB said SPF respondents' expectations for unemployment in 2004 and 2005 remain unchanged at 8.8 pct and 8.5 pct respectively. "The gradual nature of the expected pick-up in economic activity is the main factor cited as being behind the relatively slow decline in unemployment in 2004 and 2005," it said. "However, once the economic upswing gathers steam, respondents expect the cycle to be a stronger driving factor behind the decline in unemployment." The ECB said the expected rate of unemployment in 2008 stands at 7.5 pct, which represents a slight upward revision compared with the previous round's estimate of 7.4 pct. "Whilst some respondents cite labour market reforms as being behind the expected decline in unemployment over the longer-term horizon, a number of respondents are sceptical about the magnitude of future reforms," the ECB said The ECB carried out its quarterly survey of experts from financial and non-financial institutions between April 16 and 26. The previous survey was conducted in January fxstreet.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 9:22:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

China Commodity Price Hikes Moderating BEIJING, May 13 Asia Pulse - Enterprise commodity prices in China rose 0.7 per cent month on month and 9.3 per cent year on year in April, according to the People's Bank of China. By category, prices of capital goods picked up 0.7 per cent month on month and 9.5 per cent year on year, while prices of consumer goods rose 0.8 per cent month on month and 8.8 per cent year on year. The central bank said that this means the price hikes have begun to moderate. In a breakdown, the price of farm produce rose 1.7 per cent month on month and 17 per cent year on year in April, of which grain price hiked 2.8 per cent month on month and 31.5 per cent year on year; oil-bearing crop price rose 0.9 per cent month on month and 15.6 per cent year on year; cotton price declined 1.9 per cent month on month but went up 28.8 per cent year on year; vegetable price went down 10.1 per cent month on month and 20.2 per cent year on year. The price of coal in April surged 5.5 per cent month on month and 33 per cent year on year; that of coke rose 4.2 per cent month on month and 36.9 per cent year on year; that of crude oil rose 3.1 per cent month on month but dropped 3.8 per cent month on month. Nonferrous metallic product price was 1.9 per cent higher month on month and 34.8 per cent higher year on year in April, while ferrous metal prices was 1.8 per cent lower month on month though still 37.1 per cent higher month on month. The price of transport equipment fell 0.2 per cent month on month and 4.2 per cent year on year. The price of durable consumer goods dipped 0.2 per cent month on month and 1.6 per cent year on year. sg.biz.yahoo.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 9:25:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL CORE PPI UP 0.2%, IN LINE WITH FORECAST 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. MARCH PPI UNREVISED AT 0.5%, CORE UNREVISED 0.2% 8:29am 05/13/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 13,000 TO 331,000 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL RETAIL SALES FALL 0.5% VS. -0.3% EXPECTED 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL EX-AUTO RETAIL SALES -0.1% VS -0.3% EXPECTED 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 7,750 TO 335,750 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. MARCH RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 2% VS. 1.8% 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE NOV 2000 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL AUTO SALES OFF 1.8%, GARDEN SALES OFF 0.7% 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL DEPT. STORE SALES DOWN 1.7%, CLOTHING OFF 2% 8:30am 05/13/04 U.S. APRIL PPI UP 0.7% VS 0.3% FORECAST

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (6274)	5/13/2004 10:58:32 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Post on the FOOL from GS to Andy. This is in response to Andy that thinks home prices have nowhere to go but up. He pointed out thathousing prices in MA have gone uo 13 straight years and will continue to do so. From GS: ==================================================== With all due respect, and I do mean that because I have read your previous posts, I have to disagree with you quite vehemently on this topic. I am not a regular on this board (I tend to interrupt instead and use it as one learning tool among many), nor do I daytrade or follow the market on a daily basis, but I do like to observe human nature and I read almost everything I can get my hands on. I also agree with you, on principle, that the U.S. is a great nation. Our actions as Americans, unfortunately, often do not coincide with that belief. What I have observed in the past few years is the following: >> Credit card debt is at an all-time high (around 8000/household). This means that some people are 100,000 + in debt to make up for the debtless households like yours and mine. Check out the credit card discussion group for the reality of living with this kind of debt. And those are the people who are actually trying to dig their way out instead of going bankrupt. >> Bankruptcy is at an all-time high. Who is paying for this, ultimately? >> Health care costs are out of this world. I know. I have personally seen how families are struggling to get care and then pay the bills if they are not insured, which a record number of families are not. >> Houses have appreciated to a point that my husband and I cannot afford the type of house that our parents, had they been in the same professions, could have afforded. I have had to explain this to my parents as well, as they find it hard to believe that we don't have a nicer house. I recommend the book "The Two Income Trap" that was mentioned here about a week ago. Does this mean that we can't buy a nicer house? No, but that amount of debt makes us mighty uncomfortable, and puts us at risk for bankruptcy as well should my husband lose his job. >> Job loss is a reality. OK, unemployment is somewhere above 5 and below 10%. How many people are working below their educational level? My husband is extremely well educated but still fears losing his job. He used to work for Great Big Corporation (which he left for a better position), and GBC employed people in your generation for "life". Our generation? Until the next wave of downsizing, outsourcing (yes, it's happening even with Highly Educated Professionals), or less than optimal performance (I don't mean slacking off, I mean optimal). Severance pay? If you are lucky. >>We know households earning 60K who buy a new car every year. Every year. Do the math. They aren't saving up to buy a new car every year. >> Cash out refinancing? All time high. Home equity? All time low. Foreclosures? Another high (in my area). Creative financing? Don't get me started. I just got a call yesterday from a sales guy who demanded to know why I didn't want an interest only mortgage. Were you getting calls like that in the 60's? >> Everyone and his brother was buying real estate as an investment in the past few years. Everyone who's lost her job seems to be going into real estate in some form (realtor, mortgage "counselor"). Someone here mentioned how many houses were being bought to sit empty and let appreciate. Ding! Ding! Makes the bells go off in my head. >>Does my generation of Americans feel a real attachment to their homes? I don't. People move all the time now. That Disney ideal is not the reality my friends and I are living. Just the other day I was noticing how many houses are for sale in my area. The turnover is constant. When I was a little kid I don't remember anyone moving out of my neighborhood for about 5 years. >> Let's not even get into retirement. Suffice it to say that my parents did not even save explicitly for retirement and are doing quite well on my father's pension. We don't have a pension plan, so it's up to us. Are we pessimists instead of good ol' American optimists? Maybe, although I'm an optimist about this country for the long term, and I haven't turned pessimistic about the U.S. financial situation until the past year. Maybe it has to do with my general abhorance for the current state of affairs. I don't think that saying that real estate could decline is somehow un-American. I wish I could agree with you that only college students are in debt, but my reality shows me that a lot of people are in debt, as the ad says, up to their eyeballs. Expectations are financial reality are at odds with each other, which probably wasn't the case 40 years ago (the absolute barrage of celebrity lifestyles is toxic, IMHO). You might enjoy reading Anna Quindlen's editorial to the Class of 2004 in Newsweek this week (last page) to see how the next generation is doing. It is a wonderful commentary on reality. I do hope you are right, Andy, because it would make our future so much easier. You have obviously done very well in spite of a difficult beginning and the respect is truly all mine. GS