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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stock Farmer who wrote (65482)5/14/2004 11:42:35 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
that shipping to empty warehouse situation only happens with the young companies though. All the big firms like Cisco have so many reserves they don't need to play those games anymore. Oracle got busted for that in 91/92 I think.



To: Stock Farmer who wrote (65482)5/14/2004 12:07:03 PM
From: Peter Joseph  Respond to of 77400
 
There has been several quarters in the past when Cisco closed the books early. No products were shipped during the last 1 or 2 weeks. May not have happened lately, but you can see how predictable this $0.01 'surprise' has become.

Customers are told that products will ship 1 or 2 weeks late because of mysterious manufacturing reasons.

i am also more enlightened on the 'Deferred revenue recognition' issue now (Thanks, John & Ron).

All of this seems legal (to me, just a bystander).

Something about managing WS expectations?

What else are companies supposed to do, when WS has q-to-q tunnel vision madness and is focused on earnings predictability?

Here are snippets from Google 'owner's manual':

As a private company, we have concentrated on the long term, and this has served us well. As a public company, we will do the same. In our opinion, outside pressures too often tempt companies to sacrifice long-term opportunities to meet quarterly market expectations. Sometimes this pressure has caused companies to manipulate financial results in order to "make their quarter." In Warren Buffett's words, "We won't 'smooth' quarterly or annual results: If earnings figures are lumpy when they reach headquarters, they will be lumpy when they reach you."

..
Although we may discuss long-term trends in our business, we do not plan to give earnings guidance in the traditional sense. We are not able to predict our business within a narrow range for each quarter. We recognize that our duty is to advance our shareholders' interests, and we believe that artificially creating short-term target numbers serves our shareholders poorly. We would prefer not to be asked to make such predictions, and if asked we will respectfully decline. A management team distracted by a series of short-term targets is as pointless as a dieter stepping on a scale every half hour.



To: Stock Farmer who wrote (65482)5/14/2004 1:21:51 PM
From: rkral  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
John, for this most recent Cisco quarter, with respect to the deferred revenue topic, I think I'm being realistic.

During three decades of working as a (product and systems) design engineer and engineering manager for communications companies, I've seen and participated in many end-of-quarter happenings. Frequently they made me shake my head. Sometimes they made me swear. And occasionally I argued with executive officers about what we were doing. Not surprisingly, they won .. every time. :-)

The most frequent occurrence was engineering "helping" production technicians test "new products". The product wasn't always new .. but it was almost always at end of quarter.

Next most common was shipping complex systems without a sub-assembly because the sub-assembly was in short supply. All the systems were tested with one of the subs .. and then many shipped without. No problem! The systems were so complex, only our installation technicians powered them up and brought them online. Solution: Just let the tech take the part with him on the installation trip. (I don't recall if missing sub showed up on shipping document as "back-ordered".)

And there were a few occasions our company had complete product ready .. but the customer wanted shipment delayed to avoid a hit to their accounts payable. But we wanted to recognize the revenue and report the income. Voila! Just ship it to a warehouse.

But did any of those activities cause a shift from 20% NPM to 100% NPM .. as you presented for a quarterly shift of some Cisco deferred revenue? Highly unlikely IMO, highly unlikely. AFAIK the material and labor costs were both reported along with the revenue.

Do I believe companies manage reported earnings? You bet! I remember plotting GE's annual EPS some time ago .. and it was the prettiest straight line you can imagine. That doesn't happen by accident. And it doesn't happen with good planning and execution either. It's helped along by managing the earnings IMO.

But do I believe Cisco managed earnings for 3Q04 by manipulating deferred revenue? Suppose they might have, but the evidence is very weak .. because of the previously mentioned QoQ increase in deferred revenue. So I believe, if financial engineering occurred, it occurred elsewhere.

I'm sure we can agree to disagree. :-)

Ron