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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9944)5/21/2004 12:33:52 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 25522
 
No new IC manufacturing startups seen on the horizon

Silicon Strategies
05/21/2004, 10:45 AM ET

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--The soaring cost of fabs have prompted some to believe that the new Chinese foundry providers are very likely to be the last group of startup IC producers, according to IC Insights Inc.

The barriers of entry for semiconductor manufacturing are huge. Startup chip manufacturers must spend billions of dollars on new fabs, especially 300-mm plants, which run $2 billion or more.

"It would take a bold company today to attempt to gain significant market share against TSMC, UMC, IBM, Chartered, SMIC, Grace, etc.," according to IC Insights. "Thus, the question remains, where and how does a new group of IC manufacturing startups enter the IC industry? In IC Insights' opinion, they don't," the report said.

"In summary, there isn't a new group of IC manufacturing startups on the horizon," according to the report. "The Chinese foundry providers are very likely to be the last group of startup IC producers to enter the industry."



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9944)5/21/2004 1:10:17 PM
From: Math Junkie  Respond to of 25522
 
If, as you say, end user demand is predictable, that still leaves the problem of predicting the behavior of one's competitors.

We have heard this story about the death of cycles before, and it has made me skeptical. However, it appears that you are planning for both possibilities, so you'll probably be OK.