To: gregor_us who wrote (14260 ) 5/22/2004 10:31:27 AM From: russwinter Read Replies (1) | Respond to Good comments on the OPEC set-up; At the meeting a quota increase would be irrelevant since seven of the OPEC 10 members cannot increase production. Let's assume however that OPEC decides to increase production by a million barrels per day and that the increase is proportionate for the three members that have excess capacity: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. This would result in respective gains of 742,000, 190,000 and 68,000 barrels per day. That would cut the oil revenue of the seven members which are at capacity by $58 million per day or 10.8 percent. The three countries with excess capacity would see their revenues decline $12 million per day and a more modest 2.8 percent. All of these numbers assume the same price of crude for all countries, but since most of the increase would be heavy or sour crude from Saudi Arabia the impact on sour crude prices will be even greater than on light sweet crude (WTI). Venezuela which produces significant quantities of sour crude would shoulder a greater part of the burden than Nigeria which has more light crude.
