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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (15340)	5/23/2004 12:06:55 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

VXO/VIX/VXN vs SOX and AMAT on long term monthly charts. Tops are set when volatility is low. Bottoms are set when it spikes higher. Too much complacency is bearish. Too much fear as shown by panic selling is bullish and can be seen by spikes higher by the various volatility indexes. Regardless of whether the market is in bull or bear mode the volatility indices have an inverse relationship to the market as a whole. investorshub.com Look at the first chart Gottfried and you will see that the VXO which, was the old VIX, had two of it's highest spikes above 50 in 1997 and 1998. Most of us who read this thread never thought of 1997 or 1998 as a bear market even though stocks prices for our favorite stocks in the SOX, AMAT for example, was far lower in price at that time than it got even in October 2002. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (15340)	5/23/2004 12:16:32 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95546

Bullish Percent Index stockcharts.com The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a popular market breadth indicator that is calculated by dividing the number of stocks in a given group (an exchange, an industry, etc.) that are currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals, by the total number of stocks in that group. Bullish Percent levels that are above 70% are considered overbought, whereas levels below 30% are considered oversold. Strong buy signals occur when the Bullish Percent Index falls below 30% and then reverses up by at least 6%. Conversely, promising sell signals occur when it goes above 70%, and then reverses down by at least 6%. It is important to note that the Bullish Percent Index is not something that can be applied to a single stock but rather an index that is calculated for a group of stocks. The most popular version of this chart is the NYSE Bullish Percent ($BPNYA) which is mentioned prominently in Thomas Dorsey's book, Point & Figure Charting however it is important to remember that the Bullish Percent index can be calculated for any grouping of stocks. Because the NYSE's Bullish Percent Index is so closely followed, each day we also publish the list of NYSE stocks with P&F buy signals as well as the list of all stocks in the current NYSE "universe". Those lists can be found on our NYSE BPI Components page. Traditionally, the Bullish Percent indicator is charted on a Point and Figure chart using a 2 point box size. However, the indicator can also be charted and studied using standard charts as well. Current Bullish Percent charts: NYSE ($BPNYA) Nasdaq ($BPCOMPQ) Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX) Dow Industrials ($BPINDU) S & P 500 ($BPSPX) S & P 100 ($BPOEX) Toronto Stock Exchange ($BPTSE) S&P Consumer Discretionary Sector ($BPDISC) S&P Energy Sector ($BPENER) S&P Financial Sector ($BPFINA) S&P Healthcare Sector ($BPHEAL) S&P Industrial Sector ($BPINDY) S&P Information Technology Sector ($BPINFO) S&P Materials Sector ($BPMATE) S&P Consumer Staples Sector ($BPSTAP) S&P Telecom Services Sector ($BPTELE) S&P Utilities Sector ($BPUTIL) Dow Jones Transportation Sector ($BPTRAN)

To: Gottfried who wrote (15340)	5/23/2004 1:00:31 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95546

Gottfried, the lowest BPCOMPQ score was also in 1998. investorshub.com Probably the biggest problem with the BPNDX is not whether we are in a bull or bear market; instead I believe it is simply that the composition of stocks within the index changes more often in their make up than broader indices like BPCOMPQ. When a number of stocks are added, and deleted, from the BPNDX (an index that only has 100 stocks in it) the kind of stock added, as opposed to the ones deleted, can have a profound effect on the number of PnF buy signals. What we are looking for now would seem to be a 6% swing higher in the BPNDX as a buy signal. So if BPNDX moves from 30 to 32 then that would be a buy signal. However if the BPNDX continues to fall, or even hold steady, as other broader BP Indices towards their respective 30% (oversold) levels then we will wait there for a 6% reversal for a buy signal. I know the last few posts and the charts I posted have helped me to better understand both the volatility indices and the BP Indices for long term market timing. Thanks for making me work through it. RtS