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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15508)	6/2/2004 12:24:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95353

Global semiconductor industry expected to post robust 2004 sales growth <<Wednesday, June 02, 2004 8:39:15 AM ET DZ BANK LONDON, June 2 (New Ratings) – Analysts at DZ Bank maintain their positive stance on the global semiconductor industry. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the Industrial Association World Semiconductor Trade Statistics forecasts a 28.4% increase in sales in the global semiconductor industry this year. The association had earlier projected 19% growth for the industry, the analysts add. The robust performance is expected to be driven by the continuous increase in the demand for chips for mobile telephones, PCs and entertainment electronics products, according to DZ Bank. The association indicates a decline in growth momentum in global semiconductor sales in 2006, the analysts add.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15508)	6/2/2004 12:56:47 PM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95353

It's an odd comment in the context of the rest of the statement. I took it to mean "cancellations", which seems to be the market's interpretation too. But that seems at odds with what they say next, that visibility is "excellent" into Q3 and "improving" into Q4. It's important to note that the "backlog volatility" applies to the second quarter. It doesn't mean backlog was up then went down, since they say that it is up 5% to 30% across different lines. On rereading the release I am starting to wonder if they meant that they are concerned there is some double-ordering going on. They said on the CC that they track historical end demand of their products to get an idea if double-ordering is starting--maybe they feel 30% increase in backlog reflects some orders that will never be filled? So, the short answer to your question is, I haven't a clue what they're talking about... ...though I wonder why the market is so sure it has heard correctly?