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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (21200)	6/2/2004 4:13:53 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

The Federal Report you linked used the ofheo housing price appreciation index as its benchmark. This index includes only a subset of the available housing in an area, specifically the HPI is a weighted repeat sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. Further, the HPI is based on transactions involving conforming (currently a mortgage that doesn't exceed $333,700), conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and lastly, only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. San Mateo country is lumped in with SF and Marin and this composite area showed an aggregate yoy index increase of 5.21%, the US as a whole showed a yoy of 7.71%, and San Jose came in at 2.32%. In Q1-2004, both the San Jose and the SF area have outpaced the nation, albeit only slightly.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (21200)	6/2/2004 9:43:50 PM
From: bobby is sleepless in seattle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

lizzie, I caught the tail end of the discussion. Stats are what they are. Reported sales data are consistent year over year. Prices have gone up and continue to do so in my area and it appears the same in your area. Even though there may be price reductions in certain areas, the net of it has the prices on the upward trend.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (21200)	6/2/2004 11:29:56 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Industries like the RE industry that put out false statistics irritate me somewhat, however Lizzie, with all due respect, i don't believe that the RE RE statistics are rigged. Based on the example of your example of a house in the Peninsula that was priced at 1.2M$ in 2000 while the median was closer to 400k, it is quite easy to explain that the median can rise, while the 3x more expensive house stays flat. The median homeprices gives you an idea what kind of price movement you might expect with a house that is priced close to the median. I presume, that if you had bought a house in the Bay area at the median price in 2000, you would have enjoyed an appreciation close to what the median home price appreciation. This is what I am seeing with my house (which I bought 15% below the median) and I presume that it will hold true in most areas as well. But what does a median appreciation from 400k to 500k mean for a vineyard property priced at 2M$? Nothing. Essentially, this I the situation that you have been experiences and it be explained plain and simply without assuming that somebody rigs the statistics. That being said, i am not a RE bull but so far from what I can tell, I see strength, in the lower and middle end of the market throughout the Bay area. I don't know for 1M$+ houses in areas where dot-comers where rushing to buy houses in 1999/2000 but for the average Joe in the Bay area, the home price appreciation has been pretty nice, overall.