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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (15524)	6/2/2004 9:55:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95378

I find it hard, or essentially impossible to follow, the thinking that is going on in many "entities" minds. Just when I think I may be reaching a level of understanding, another "scenario" comes in out of the "blue" that doesn't correlate with anything else. Almost every time an article comes out with data and projections, the numbers are usually different from past numbers, and the time frame has changed. Looking at the tabular data, and the charts you have put together and posted from this data since 1995, I could at least see some correlation of stock prices with Bookings, Billings, etc, but not for the last many months. As you know, Bookings have only been on the upward path for the past 9 months, through April(May, I am sure, is up as well, but we have to wait for the data later this month). The Bookings level in April was 1594M - a good number, but it would hardly qualify as a "peak" type of number. Based on recent projections of chip sales going forward, the Bookings number should increase for a number of months yet. Looking at it another way, lets go back to the WSTS wording in their projection going forward. <<Taking all this into account the year 2004 was predicted to grow 28.4% over 2003, which is a 9-percentage point improvement over the growth projections made last autumn. For the following years, a deceleration in growth is forecast to 8.5% growth in 2005, followed by virtually zero growth in 2006. In 2007, another recovery cycle is expected to begin, with market growth in the 10% range.>> This says that 04, 05, 06, and 07 will have growth of 28.4, 8.5, 0, and 10 percent. My question is - where is the "cycle"? I see a leveling off and slower growth going forward, but no "cycle". Assuming the above chip sales scenario is true, what about the semi-equips going forward - do they have a "cycle" when the the chip sales do not? Are the "hard times" coming back to the semi-equips when the chip sales do not have a "cycle" and the chip sales basically tend to increase, or at worst stay "flat" over the next 3 to 4 years? I know that these are unanswerable questions, but that is what I am trying to find a way to answer. Don