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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15525)	6/3/2004 8:29:16 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95378

Look at it from "their" (the analysts) perspective: (1) Both bookings and billings are and have been increasing (meaning the first derivative of a graphed function is positive) but necessarily for most parts of the semi sector at a decreasing rate (meaning the second derivative of that same function is negative). This is the reason for continued comments that it is going to be extremely difficult (if not impossible) for our firms to continue positive comparisons going forward (which would provide impetus for further stock price increases). (2) Oil is at an all time high with little signs of going down, with the terrorist organizations that be, particularly the most organized and powerful one - Al Qedah - directly targeting the roots of the supply chain in the Middle East. (3) The international situation and the threat of a major terrorist "event" is extremely high (and it may be low in terms of actual probability on any given day but as we know, the uncertainty is enough for "the market.") (4) You have an environment or rising interest rates. The point is that as far as the analysts are concerned you can make a downward call on the sector here and not know anything about the sector (point (1)) and still end up being right because of points (2), (3) and (4). Why not go "out on a limb" here and call a sector top. You book profits already made now there's the chance if the market whacks the sector hard enough you can get back in on the lows and make more money. It's not exactly a market manipulation ala the (sleazy) boys at Enron, but these people (the analyst community and their banking houses) have had years of time to practice moving the markets to their advantage. If we're cynical about their pronouncements (not their purposes, which are clear) we have a right to be. Caveat Emptor. Jess.