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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15561)	6/4/2004 1:58:03 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95487

And while we are at it, the table is sorted by percent change. Note that NVLS is down 8 percent over the 18 month period, while next year earnings have gone from 0.46 to 1.58. Let's see now, hardly worth it to invest in the semi-equip group over the last 18 months was it? Of course, we could have invested in MTSN and EGLS, making 205 and 100 percent respectively, but then again, we could have invested in AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS, and made 17, 9, and -8 percent respectively over 18 months, and not only that, but the analysts are saying the "good times" are over for this cycle and we will have to wait another 7 months or so for the "good times" to roll again.:) - 11/29/02 5/28/04 - 11/29/02 5/28/04 FST CALL FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR NXT YR SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN EARN MTSN 3.50 10.66 205 -1.10 1.22 EGLS 2.62 5.25 100 -2.24 0.12 KLIC 5.85 11.45 96 0.06 1.30 VECO 14.03 25.83 84 0.26 1.48 SMTL 6.94 11.45 65 1.10 ASML 11.15 17.61 58 0.10 1.08 LRCX 16.24 25.13 55 0.41 1.63 FSII 4.53 6.89 52 0.53 BRKS 14.44 20.62 43 -0.27 1.47 HELX 14.18 19.90 40 -0.09 1.37 TER* 16.39 22.29 36 -0.30 1.78 UTEK 11.47 15.24 33 -0.23 0.89 CMOS 10.82 14.01 29 -0.69 1.35 COHU 15.50 18.95 22 -0.19 1.40 ASYT 8.41 10.11 20 0.15 0.53 AMAT* 17.05 19.97 17 0.50 1.18 LTXX 9.22 10.65 16 -0.22 0.97 PLAB 15.82 17.72 12 0.04 1.10 KLAC* 44.17 48.18 9 1.09 2.46 ATMI 23.97 25.62 7 0.03 1.23 CYMI 36.33 36.80 1 0.42 2.55 WFR 9.12 9.18 1 0.38 0.90 NVLS* 36.29 33.29 -8 0.46 1.58 PHTN 35.25 32.26 -8 0.12 1.78 DPMI 27.83 22.08 -21 0.28 0.21 TOTALS 411.12 491.14 19 -1.03 31.21 SOX-X 373.53 488.86 31 COMPQX1478.78 1986.74 34

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15561)	6/4/2004 7:34:47 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

Don, this table is a graphic illustration of my point. Look at the difference on the bottom line! From $-1/share to $+31! Even if $+31 is "the peak of this cycle", for the share prices to approach the same level as 18 months ago is mind boggling. Ok, we can understand the price pressures which have been on DPMI and the numbers "justify" the lowered price. What about WFR+CYMI? 1% gain on over 2 times and 5 times improvements in EPS? Total BS! Great table, Don. Thanks for posting it!

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15561)	6/18/2004 2:29:46 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95487

The post I'm responding to contains a table that everyone should review again. While looking at the table, think about "next year's earnings estimates" and consider what the forward PE for the group is based on this number. As of 5/28/04 we were paying a 15 forward PE for the group as a whole. It seems to me that this is a very reasonable forward PE to pay for this group. Now consider what we were paying back in 2002 based on negative net forward earnings $1. We know the improvement in earnings are real. We can look back at the eps progressions over the past 8 quarters to see just how real these improvements are. Don, I don't know if you have this data in your tables or if you have time over the weekend but, if you do, I wonder if it would be easy for you to display the group with actual eps for the past 2 years. If it's possible, I would think it would be very interesting to see the progression in earnings from June 02-March 03 vs June 03-March 04 vs projected next year's eps. The next questions I'd like to answer are: What are the net $ improvement in total earnings for the group from 03 to 04? How much has the bottom line improved as a percentage of the total cost of the group? Are we expecting a greater then 15% increase in 04 vs 05? (Is the 15 PE reasonable or over valued?) If we are expecting growth greater then 15% in eps, then my question becomes how much more? This could help us to determine whether or not our 15% growth rate (forward PE) multiple for the group is in the "ball park". Thanks in advance! mh