Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (10142)	6/5/2004 12:31:44 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Gottfried, Bookings forecasts are flattening in Q2 2004 after very strong increases in Q4 2003 and Q1 2004. I expect bookings growth to shadow semi revenue growth, but I have not established the relationship quantitatively. That is why I am watching the wafer starts data. I think you focused too much on bookings and price. You need to consider PE and price, both current PE and estimated peak PE. I think things will change in the next few quarters because revenue levels are high enough to generate high margins and high EPS. I think the higher EPS and the discrediting of the end of cycle fears will push prices higher. How high will depend on EPS growth and new predictions of a longer cycle. Cary

To: Gottfried who wrote (10142)	6/5/2004 1:07:57 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I believe the problem with this cycle lies not with investors but rather with institutional investors who simply have sold more shares than they have bought since January. Technically we saw a rise low volume rise for the SOX up until January 2004 even though some stocks like AMAT hit their tops in 2003. The way large cap stocks like AMAT trade is almost entirely determined by institutional investors. They could still decide to buy and hold. The total put to call ratio is unusually high. The BPNDX is still showing a buy signal. But we have few other indications of anything remotely close to a long term bottom just yet. Perhaps that is why so far the institutions have not begun buying in earnest. Personally Gottfried I admire your ability to at least discuss the possibility that stocks do not have to rise just because we think they should. Fundamentally all tops for stocks in this industry have been reached when the btb was high and earnings expectations were rising. Conversely bottoms happen when the btb is low and expectations are low as well. Where are we now? RtS